This is from a current game with Max

But I wanted to wait until the round was over before talking about it.


Note I need G. to swallow 39+ sides of poison in the next two turns in order to win.
He has four choices right now... he must capture with his 20-sided die, but he could capture
either my poison 12-sided die, or either of the poison 20-sided dice, or my poison 30
-sided die [Val 5].

Most people would instinctively take the poison 12-sided die. If he does this, and rolls
anything between 5 and 10, he definitely loses. [I'll capture his 6 sided die with my OTHER 30-sided die, and he'll have to eat the first 30-sided die.]



If he rolls 12 or higher, probably my best chance is again to capture his 6-sided die with my large-valued 30-sided die, and hope it rolls low enough that, after he captures one of my 20-sided dice, he rolls too high and needs to capture ANOTHER. It's not much of a chance [I should calculate these odds!], but it's something


if he rolls an 11, I could either do the same thing as above for 12 and higher, or... and probably a little more likely, I could capture his 6 sided die with my
20-sided die with val 11 and hope to roll ABOVE 11, thus forcing to capture my 30-sided die
this has a 45% chance of success.

if he rolls 1-4, I'm in a bad spot... take the die with one of my 30-sided dice and hope to roll 1-4 myself so his 6 sided die must capture me. only 4/30 of a chance 13.33%
---------------------------
overall, he's in a pretty good position, around 65% chance of victory, maybe a hair less -- but is this best he can do? what if he took a different approach? Presumably he wouldn't take my 30-sided die, but could he do better by taking one of my 20 sided dice? and does it matter which one he takes?


Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Button Man: Max Score: -100 (-64 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 0 / 0 (out of 4 round(s))
Captured Dice: Plasma {Mighty} Poison 12-sided die, Ornery 6-sided die, 12-sided die

Dice	Poison 12-sided die	Poison 20-sided die	Poison 20-sided die	Poison 30-sided die	Poison 30-sided die
Value	9	11	12	27	5
Dice	20-sided die	S Swing (with 6 sides)
Value	12	4

* Next Turn * Player: Gryphon *Rage* *Fanatic* * Next Turn *
Button Man: Maya Score: -4 (64 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 1 / 0
Captured Dice: Poison X Swing 11-sided die, Poison X Swing 11-sided die, Poison 12-sided die