Buttonmen 101, day 1

this isn't hard at all, but it's the sort of basic small computation that comes up often -- I have three possible attacks here, which gives me the best chance of winning? Which gives me the least chance of winning?

Game #20987  •  ElihuRoot (Oni) vs. AnnoDomini (Rhode Island)  •  Round #3

Reverse

Your turn to attack

(4) (10) f(12) f(12) (V) Button: Oni Player: ElihuRoot

W/L/T: 1/1/0 (3)  •  Score: 18.5 (-10.3 sides) Dice captured: (4), (R=2) (4) 4 (10) 5 (V=11) 8 f(12)  2  2 (4) 4 d(6) 10 d(10) Dice captured: f(12), f(12) W/L/T: 1/1/0 (3)  •  Score: 34 (+10.3 sides)

Player: AnnoDomini Button: Rhode Island (4) (4) d(6) d(10) (R)

yawetag has only a very slim chance in either case

Maybe it's not much of a puzzle as y. only has two legal moves. and in both cases, it would take a miracle to win assuming I make sensible plays -- but are the two required miracles equally miraculous?

Game #17382  •  ElihuRoot (Horace) vs. yawetag (Anders)  •  Round #2

Mad Robin - Season 17

Opponent's turn to attack

(8) (10) p(20) (20) (Z) Button: Horace Player: ElihuRoot

W/L/T: 1/0/0 (3)  •  Score: 26.5 (-6.3 sides) Dice captured: o(24), (8) (8) 5 (10) 7 p(20) 9 (Z=11) 7 3 (8) 5 (8) 3 (8) 3 (8)  1  (8) Dice captured: (20) W/L/T: 0/1/0 (3)  •  Score: 36 (+6.3 sides)

Player: yawetag Button: Anders (8) (8) (8) (8) (8) o(24)

quick!

I notice that when I have a large stack of  games waiting for me to make a move on the web site, I  tend to wade through them too quickly, making moves at a glance without doing careful analysis. Often I see my mistake just moments too late.

What should I have done instead?
[Actually, in this particular game,  maybe it doesn't matter very much -- even with my mistake, I'm probably going to win this round anyway, as g. has to get very lucky on her die rolls to win here. But I could have made it even more difficult for her.]

Oh, shoot, the cut-and-paste lost the value of the capture die (and of course it doesn't include the previous value of the die I used to make the attack.  In fact, I  my last attack  was to use my s(10) which was showing a value of 4 to take g.'s 10 sided die which also had a value of 4. Of course, my s(10) has just rerolled to show a value of 8.

So reset my s(10)  to value 4 and give g. back her 10 sided die with value 4 and come up with a better choice for me.

Game #19422  •  ElihuRoot (Wastenott) vs. glassonion (King Endymion)  •  Round #1

reverse

Opponent's turn to attack

s(4) s(8) s(10) s(20) s(X) Button: Wastenott Player: ElihuRoot

W/L/T: 0/0/0 (3)  •  Score: 51 (+22.7 sides) Dice captured: (20), (10) s(4) 3 s(8) 2 s(10) 8 s(20) 17 4 (6) 15 (20)  4  (10) Dice captured: s(X=4) W/L/T: 0/0/0 (3)  •  Score: 17 (-22.7 sides)

Player: glassonion Button: King Endymion (6) (10) (20) (20) r(6) r(10) r(12) r(20)