Saturday, August 18, 2007

Another endgame position...

Am I better off with the speed attack, or trying to reroll my 12-sided die?

Skills in this game: S Swing, Speed
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Hale (z8 12 20 20 S) Score: 50 (-13.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 1 / 0 (Out of 5 wins)
Your Captured Dice: 20-sided die, 20-sided die
Speed
8-sided die
12-sided die 20-sided die
5 2 2
Captured last turn
Speed
8-sided die
12-sided die S Swing
(with 6 sides)
8 1 4
Opponent: gauen
Button Man: Hale (z8 12 20 20 S) Score: 70 (13.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 1 / 0
Captured Dice: 20-sided die, S Swing 17-sided die, 20-sided die

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Given scores and dice remaining, both players need to take all the opponent's dice to win.

If you use a speed attack, there are 64 possible outcomes, based on your reroll and his reroll of his z8. You lose in all cases where you reroll a 6 and win in all other cases where he rerolls 1 and every other case where he rerolls 2 except when you rerolled 1, giving you 13 winning outcomes.

Working out odds for if you reroll your 12, I'd found a better rate of winning outcomes from if you rerolled 9,10, or 11 (guaranteeing he can't take the 12) and a partial check of if you reroll 6, 7, or 8 (where I'm certain that taking the 12 before the z8 is a better move for him; I'm not entirely sure which is a better move if they both show 5).

So, I'd say rerolling the 12 is the better move at this point.