Friday, June 16, 2017

Should I let the poison grow ever larger? [blast from the past!]

I see I'm up to 170 posts -- but I have 97 "drafts" or fragments of posts I saved and never published. Some of them just didn't work out, but I do want to look through them.

This one is from late 2009 -- back on the old site.  I have to struggle to figure out what the issue was that motivated me to save the game snapshot. I think the issue is whether I should risk taking the poison now -- it means rerolling the 20-sided die rather than keep it safe (1 chance in 5 or recapture). But if I *don't do it, and  make a safe attack, the poison will only grow, and could even roll above the (20) with one chance in 6 and with another 1 in 6 could still threaten me with a power or skill attack.

But maybe it's not a difficult problem. The larger poison doesn't matter so much, I can afford to eat it even if it grows twice and still win -- but if rolls above me and captures me [which isn't a sure thing even with the 1 in 6], would I be in trouble? I don't think so,  I'd take both of k's non-poison dice on the way out. and have enough of a margin to afford losing the 20-sided die.

The only thing that would sink me is BOTH capturing the poison AND losing the (20), so it seems clear that I should postpone rerolling the 20. capture non-poison this turn with the other dice, then capture the other non-poison next turn, then whatever happens after that, I'm ok.

Maybe there's a good reason this stayed a draft. But if you edited the button recipes you could make a more subtle problem building on this theme.



Button Men Game #686417

Tournament #13724: revenge on the stats tournament for alaric
Current Round: Round 2. (organized by glassonion)
Alaric's ten worst buttons with which he has played at least 17 games. If you are alaric, you may choose your button. Everyone else *must* select randomly.

Skills in this game: Mighty, Poison, S Swing, Trip, Y Swing

Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Temperance (t2 8 12 20 Y) Score: 43.5 (19 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 1 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: 12-sided die, 20-sided die

Trip
2-sided die
20-sided dieY Swing
(with 1 sides)

8-sided die
2 10 1
3
Captured last turn
4-sided dieMighty Poison
10-sided die
S Swing
(with 6 sides)


3 6 2

Opponent: kestrel *Werehamster* *Fresh Coat of Flag Paint* *Fanatic*
Button Man: Pestilence (4 pH6 12 20 S) Score: 15 (-19 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 1 / 0

Yucky situation!

If I don't take the initiative, AD has a choice between taking my (20) with value 20 or speed attacking the other (20) and the f(8).
But if I *do* take the inittive, I leave myself vulnerable to a speed attack from the z(20) with value 13 unless I take it with my (20) with value 20, which means making a very vulnerable reroll with the other z(20).

I guess I could take the initiative, then reroll my (20) with value 10 -- still very vulnerable reroll, wouldn't capture *either* z(20)  and would leave my (20) with value 20 exposed to capture in any case.

What would you do?