Sunday, November 5, 2017

this doesn't seem HARD but I don't want to do it.

I've been really enjoying playing with and against the Button "Stick" -- that null speed trip die causes all sorts of interesting decisions.

Here's one where I made what I'm pretty sure is a suboptimal decision just because it was too hard to quickly figure out all the possibilities. I've got to attack with the 12-sided die, but should I take the p(3) or the tzn(16)?

If I take the tzn(16), the calculation is pretty clear. I win if I roll higher than 3 (probability 3/4), OR if I roll lower than 3, but AD rerolls the p(3) to 3 after he captures with it, (probability 1/4*1/3 = 1/12). The sum of those is 10/12, i.e. 5/6.

But what happens if I instead capture the p(3) on my roll. I'm still up 3 sides, but if he nulls out my 12-sided die that will cost me 4 sides and I'll lose -- UNLESS he also nulls out my p(10) -- but he'll try hard not to do that, tripping me rather than being forced to power attack me.. So what happens?

So what happens? if I take the p(3) and reroll 1-5, he'll recapture me with a power attack and hope to roll a 1 or 2 and win for sure; but even if he rolls 3-16 and I have no legal attack, he'll trip attack the p(10), hoping to lose.

but if my reroll after capturing the p(3) is 6-12, he'll trip attack my 12-sided die, hoping to capture it and ALSO NOT have to also capture the p(10), which he'll trip attack if he must. lots of fiddly cases, here, depending on the outcome of the first trip attack.

At first I thought this couldn't work out as good for me as the other option, but as I thought about it, I was less sure. But not less sure enough to want to do the explicit math.

Wednesday, August 16, 2017

what's the best move here?

b must take my posion, which will put me slightly ahead on points. What can he do to maximize his chance of victory nonetheless?

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Another post from an old saved game, but I don't think it's very difficult

This game was from the "old" buttonmen site November, 2011. I saved it (cutting off the bottom rows, unfortunately -- I can't even remember the name of the other button UPDATE: Oh, it's Riff from Sluggy Freelance), obviously thinking there was some sort of post in it -- but what was the question I was going to ask?

It's clear, isn't it, that taking the 20-sided die guarantees at least a draw, which makes more sense than taking the 10-sided die even though it's larger.

Maybe the question was which way to take it? should you reroll the 2,2 and 4-sided dice, or the 8-sided die?  You just need to capture ONE more die, after all. And you're almost certain to be able to do it no matter what. What could go wrong? Can you prevent it?

Button Men Game #724118 
Tournament Legal challenge, copying communication from game 723689

Skills in this game: Option
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Chang (2/20 2/20 4/20 8/20)   Score: 8 (-10 sides)   Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 0 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: None
Option 2/20
(with 2 sides)
Option 2/20
(with 2 sides)
Option 4/20
(with 4 sides)
Option 8/20
(with 8 sides)
  2  1  2  5
Option 4/20
(with 4 sides)
6-sided dieOption 6/8
(with 6 sides)
Option 10/12
(with 10 sides)
20-sided die
  4  6  5  8  5

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Friday, June 16, 2017

Should I let the poison grow ever larger? [blast from the past!]

I see I'm up to 170 posts -- but I have 97 "drafts" or fragments of posts I saved and never published. Some of them just didn't work out, but I do want to look through them.

This one is from late 2009 -- back on the old site.  I have to struggle to figure out what the issue was that motivated me to save the game snapshot. I think the issue is whether I should risk taking the poison now -- it means rerolling the 20-sided die rather than keep it safe (1 chance in 5 or recapture). But if I *don't do it, and  make a safe attack, the poison will only grow, and could even roll above the (20) with one chance in 6 and with another 1 in 6 could still threaten me with a power or skill attack.

But maybe it's not a difficult problem. The larger poison doesn't matter so much, I can afford to eat it even if it grows twice and still win -- but if rolls above me and captures me [which isn't a sure thing even with the 1 in 6], would I be in trouble? I don't think so,  I'd take both of k's non-poison dice on the way out. and have enough of a margin to afford losing the 20-sided die.

The only thing that would sink me is BOTH capturing the poison AND losing the (20), so it seems clear that I should postpone rerolling the 20. capture non-poison this turn with the other dice, then capture the other non-poison next turn, then whatever happens after that, I'm ok.

Maybe there's a good reason this stayed a draft. But if you edited the button recipes you could make a more subtle problem building on this theme.

Button Men Game #686417

Tournament #13724: revenge on the stats tournament for alaric
Current Round: Round 2. (organized by glassonion)
Alaric's ten worst buttons with which he has played at least 17 games. If you are alaric, you may choose your button. Everyone else *must* select randomly.

Skills in this game: Mighty, Poison, S Swing, Trip, Y Swing

Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Temperance (t2 8 12 20 Y) Score: 43.5 (19 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 1 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: 12-sided die, 20-sided die

2-sided die
20-sided dieY Swing
(with 1 sides)

8-sided die
2 10 1
Captured last turn
4-sided dieMighty Poison
10-sided die
S Swing
(with 6 sides)

3 6 2

Opponent: kestrel *Werehamster* *Fresh Coat of Flag Paint* *Fanatic*
Button Man: Pestilence (4 pH6 12 20 S) Score: 15 (-19 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 1 / 0

Yucky situation!

If I don't take the initiative, AD has a choice between taking my (20) with value 20 or speed attacking the other (20) and the f(8).
But if I *do* take the inittive, I leave myself vulnerable to a speed attack from the z(20) with value 13 unless I take it with my (20) with value 20, which means making a very vulnerable reroll with the other z(20).

I guess I could take the initiative, then reroll my (20) with value 10 -- still very vulnerable reroll, wouldn't capture *either* z(20)  and would leave my (20) with value 20 exposed to capture in any case.

What would you do?

Wednesday, May 31, 2017

one easy question, one a little more subtle

It's AnnoDomini's turn and he has two choices -- take my 4-sided die with his 2-sided die, or take my 6-sided die with a skill attack.

If AD chooses option one and I am forced to take the 2-sided die on my next turn, which die should I use? [that should be an easy question]

But is that AD's best chance of winning? would it make more sense for him to do the skill attack?

Game #20987  •  ElihuRoot (Oni) vs. AnnoDomini (Rhode Island)  •  Round #2
Opponent's turn to attack

(4) (10) f(12) f(12) (V)
Button: Oni
Player: ElihuRoot
W/L/T: 1/0/0 (3)  •  Score: 24 (+2 sides)
Dice captured: (4), (4)
Dice captured: f(12)
W/L/T: 0/1/0 (3)  •  Score: 21 (-2 sides)
Player: AnnoDomini
Button: Rhode Island
(4) (4) d(6) d(10) (R)