can take my 10-sided die (by only 10%) to eliminate the chance that his speed-12 will roll higher than 10?
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Reaver (4 10 10 12 pX) Score: 12 (-11.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 1 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: Speed 12-sided die
| 10-sided die | 10-sided die | Poison X Swing (with 10 sides) | 4-sided die | |
| 10 | 10 | 1 | 1 Captured last turn | |
| Speed 10-sided die | Speed 12-sided die | Speed X Swing (with 4 sides) | ||
| 2 | 2 | 3 |
Button Man: Morgan (z10 z12 z12 zX) Score: 29 (11.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 2 / 0
Captured Dice: 12-sided die, 4-sided die
1 comment:
To win, you need to either take his 10 and 12 and lose your poison die or take all of his dice and keep at least one of your non-poison dice.
If you take his 12-sider first, then:
If your die rerolls to 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, or 10, you win;
If your die reroll to 1, 2, 3, or 5, and either of his dice rerolls a 1 and his 10-sider doesn't roll a 10 when taking it, you win;
If your other 10-sider rolls too high for his 4-sider to take when you take his 10-sider with it, you win;
If his 4-sider rerolls greater than one when taking your second 10-sider, you win.
Overall, this gives you slightly better than a 97.75% chance of winning, or about a 2.25% chance of losing.
If you take the 4-sider first, then:
If you reroll a 1 (10% chance), then he could use his 12-sider to speed attack both your p10 and the 10-sider you attacked with. If he then rerolls an 11 or 12 (16 2/3% chance in this case, or 1 2/3% chance overall), he wins. If he rerolls a 1 (8 1/3% chance here, 0.8333...% chance overall), you would lose if, when you took his 10-sider, you rerolled a 1 (a 0.08333...% chance of this case happening overall). For any other result (7.5% chance overall), you would lose if you rolled a 1 or 2 when taking his 12-sider (1.5% chance of this case overall).
That already gives you a 3.25% chance of losing before even considering the possible permutations of what could happen for your other possible die rolls.
Therefore, taking the 12-sider first is easily the better move.
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