In the meantime, here's something from a recent game. (say, challenge me to a match to help me generate more of these situations! Pick whatever buttons you think lead to interesting problems. I don't care about the odds, I'll take either side, though if you give me a ridiculously outmatched button, I'd mildly prefer the match to be "just for fun" -- or we can play both the game and the reverse match.)
In the game below, Desdinova just made a power attack that, unfortunately for him, rolled high enough for me to recapture it with my own 20-sided die -- on the other hand, it forces me to reroll that die and puts it at risk. He could still eke out a tie. (actually, if I reroll a 2, I suppose there's a chance he might win!) Was there a better move D. could have made?
Button Men Game #600869
Tournament Legal challenge, copying communication from game 600484
Skills in this game: Poison, Shadow, X Swing
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| targeting ElihuRoot's Shadow X Swing 4-sided die showing 4. The 20-sided die is rerolled and the new value is 18. Desdinova takes ElihuRoot's die. |
1 comment:
The move that he made gave him a 10% chance of winding up in a strong position (15 or 16, allowing him to take your 20-sider), a 10% chance of a horrible position (3 or 4, allowing you to take his 20-sider without risking yours), a 20% chance of a bad position (17 to 20, which he could win if all resulting die rolls come out just right, but odds are very low), and varying odds of making the right roll to get a skill attack on your 20-sider the other 60% of the time.
If he'd taken the same die with his 12-sider then:
3 or 4 forces you to take the 12-sider, giving him a tie;
7 lets him take both your remaining dice with no risk to his 20-sider for a win;
6 lets him take your 20-sider with a 90% chance of his 20-sider being safe;
1, 5, 11, and 12 give him a 1-in-6 chance of getting the right roll for a skill attack on your 20-sider when he takes your other die;
2 gives him a 13-in-72 chance of getting the right roll for a skill attack on your 20-sider if he uses a skill attack to take your other die;
8, 9, and 10 give him a 15% chance of getting the right roll for a skill attack and a 20% chance of losing his 20-sider by taking your other die with his 20-sider.
This gives him some chance of at least getting a tie no matter what he rolls, and a 25% chance of a guaranteed tie or win.
Taking the same die with the 6-sider, on the other hand, results in:
1, 2, and 6 are functionally the same as for the same rolls on the 12-sider;
5 gives him a 25% chance of getting the right roll for a skill attack when he takes your other die;
3 and 4 give him a 1-in-6 chance of getting the right roll for a skill attack, and losing the 6-sider doesn't help him any.
This gives nothing better than a 1-in-6 chance of a 90% chance of winning.
So, overall, I'd say that taking that 4-sider with his 12-sider was his best move, while taking it with his 20-sider might have been his worst move.
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