At first, I thought there was a choice here, but

Upon reflection, one move is clearly superior. Do you agree?

Button Men Game #658570
This game is 'for fun' and does not count for player rankings.
Arena Game: Random BM from Victorian Horror

Skills in this game: Stealth, Focus, Stinger, Null, Shadow, X Swing
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Invisible Man (n4 d6 d10 ng10 d20) Score: 18 (-2 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 1 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: None

Null 4-sided die	Stealth 6-sided die	Stealth 10-sided die	Stealth 20-sided die		Stinger Null 10-sided die
1	4	10	3		5 Captured last turn
Focus Shadow 4-sided die	8-sided die	Shadow 10-sided die	16-sided die	X Swing (with 4 sides)
1	4	2	10	3

Opponent: Dispater *Flagless in Chicago*
Button Man: Count Dracula (sf4 8 s10 16 X) Score: 21 (2 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 2 / 0
Captured Dice: Stinger Null 10-sided die

Select an attack: Power Attack Skill Attack

Did I do the right thing?

The turn before, manicfish had a 4-sided die showing 1 and my 20-sided die showed 7. I chose to take the 4-sided die --

thus giving manicfish an opportunity to take MY 4-sided die with value 1 without having to reroll her 20-sided die.

Did I do the right thing? I COULD have rerolled my 4-sided die with value 1 and had a 3/4 chance she'd have to reroll her 20-sided die -- but I'd give up the chance of rolling high enough to threaten her 20-sided die. Would it have been  worth it?

* Next Turn * Player: manicfish *Gold Medal in Women's 100 Meter Dash* *Gold Medal in Women's Diving* *Silver Medal in Women's Hurdles* *Silver Medal in Women's Judo* *Silver Medal in Women's Marathon* * Next Turn *
Button Man: Assailer    Score: 33 (-10 sides)   Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 0 / 1 (out of 3 round(s))
Captured Dice: 12-sided die, 6-sided die, X Swing 4-sided die

Dice	20-sided die	Option 2/20 (with 2 sides)
Value	17	1
Dice	4-sided die	4-sided die	20-sided die
Value	4	1	11

Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic* 
Button Man: Gawaine    Score: 48 (10 sides)   Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 0 / 1
Captured Dice: 12-sided die, 6-sided die, 12-sided die, X Swing 4-sided die

Game Communication
	[stuff deleted]
ElihuRoot Fri Dec 5, 2008 12:14:05	this position is *so* going on my blog!

Results from last turn:
ElihuRoot is performing a power attack with a 20-sided die showing 7,
targeting manicfish's X Swing 4-sided die showing 1.

The 20-sided die is rerolled and the new value is 11.

today's decision

I've got to reroll my 20-sided die -- but should I take the 12-sided die, getting rid of a larger long-term menace and making a reroll of 20 safe? or should I take his 6-sided die and increase the chance that manicfish would need to reroll her 20-sided die to capture me? Or is there still some other option?


Button Men Game #658421

Skills in this game: Option, X Swing
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Gawaine (4 4 12 20 X 6) Score: 31 (-2 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 0 / 1 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: 12-sided die

4-sided die	4-sided die	20-sided die	X Swing (with 4 sides)	6-sided die		12-sided die
4	1	5	2	3		8 Captured last turn
12-sided die	20-sided die	Option 2/20 (with 2 sides)	X Swing (with 4 sides)	6-sided die
3	17	1	1	5

Opponent: manicfish *Gold Medal in Women's 100 Meter Dash* *Gold Medal in Women's Diving* *Silver Medal in Women's Hurdles* *Silver Medal in Women's Judo* *Silver Medal in Women's Marathon*
Button Man: Assailer (12 12 20 2/20 X 6) Score: 34 (2 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 0 / 1
Captured Dice: 12-sided die

best capture?

I could take his biggest die, showing his largest value -- but there are at least two potentially valid reasons to take something smaller. Are they persuasive?

Tournament #13561: Friday Soldieralikes Current Round: Round 1. (organized by irilyth)

They look like Soldiers... But they're not.

Skills in this game: X Swing

Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: RandomBM (8 10 12 12 X) Score: 17.5 (-9.6 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 0 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: None

8-sided die	10-sided die	12-sided die	X Swing (with 5 sides)		12-sided die
5	2	4	2		9 Captured last turn
4-sided die	4-sided die	8-sided die	10-sided die	X Swing (with 14 sides)
4	4	6	7	7

Opponent: Limax *Wombat* *Is a MAN* *Fanatic*
Button Man: RandomBM (4 4 8 10 X) Score: 32 (9.6 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 2 / 0
Captured Dice: 12-sided die

Interesting matchup -- what should the swing die be?

OK, I am currently in the middle of a Socrates vs. Morgan game. Both buttons have only four dice, with some compensation in their skills. Both buttons have low winning percentages overall, though I think this is partly from misplay in each case (especially Socrates), though certainly neither one is very strong.

But my question at the moment is about the Y swing for Socrates. What do you think it should be set to in this case? Usually, a "1" makes a lot of sense for Socrates -- the presence of his special attack gives a lot more flexibility and the benefit in gaining initiative is very strong, especially when you only have four dice. On the other hand, against a button with speed dice -- especially MULTIPLE speed dice, a "1" can be a ticket to disaster, making losses of multiple dice -- which Socrates in particual can ill afford -- much more likely. My GENERAL recommendation
when going against buttons with (multiple) speed dice is to make your swing dice as LARGE as possible; but the desire for a nice victory condition may keep you from simply maxing out the swing. In this context, the need for initiative is yet another constraint.

So: the questions:

• If Morgan's X=4, what do you think Socrates's Y should be set to?
• If Morgan's X=20, what do you think Socrates's Y should be set to?
• What should Socrates's Y be set to for the opening round?

All answers are welcome -- I don't necessarily have a best answer myself -- but I'm more interested in your reasoning than your answer.


Socrates (from Fantasy set)

• 4-sided die [ 4 ]
• 10-sided die [ 10 ]
• 12-sided die [ 12 ]
• Y Swing [ Y ]

[Special Rules: Socrates may use one of his opponent's dice as part of any 2-die Skill Attack. (called a Socrates Attack)] Wins: 1814 Losses: 2940 Win Ratio = 38% Total Games: 4754
(Stats do not count Socrates vs Socrates games.)

Morgan (from Brawl set)

• Speed 10-sided die [ z10 ]
• Speed 12-sided die [ z12 ]
• Speed 12-sided die [ z12 ]
• Speed X Swing [ zX ]

Wins: 2404 Losses: 4798 Win Ratio = 33% Total Games: 7202
(Stats do not count Morgan vs Morgan games.)

Two options -- is it clear which one's best?

SpacemanSpiff can either take my 4-sided die or my morphing-12-sided die. It's clear, isn't it, that the best die to take the 4-sided die is his die with value 3, and the best die to take the morphing-12-sided die is his die with value 5. Most people -- myself included -- would probably instinctively do the latter and maybe that is the best move; but there's a case for taking the 4-sided die, too. Is it persuasive?

Tournament #12831: "Beating the stats" tournament for Jl8e Current Round: Round 6. (organized by glassonion)

Top 10 buttons ranked 40-60% overall using which jl8e has played 10 or more games. Please pick randomly.

This game was last modified on Thu Nov 13, 2008 08:24:16

Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic* 
Button Man: Talus    Score: 60 (16.6 sides)   Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 0 / 0 (out of 3 round(s))
Captured Dice: Turbo Option 20/30 20-sided die, Option 12/20 12-sided die

Dice	4-sided die	Morphing 12-sided die	20-sided die	X Swing (with 20 sides)
Value	2	4	15	12
Dice	10-sided die	10-sided die	10-sided die
Value	3	5	8

* Next Turn * Player: SpacemanSpiff *One Mean Cat* *Bronze Medal in Men's Long Jump* * Next Turn *
Button Man: Anger    Score: 35 (-16.6 sides)   Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 2 / 0
Captured Dice: 20-sided die

similar risk-aversion theme?

OK, I have to attack with the Doppleganger 12-sided die; But lots of issues are in tension with each other --

• likelihood of the D-12 -- or rather, whatever it becomes after the capture -- rolling high enough to survive one more turn.
• if I don't roll high, what die will he be using on the reroll, and how likely is it to roll a 2?
• how many points will I lose when/if he captured whatever my doppleganger has become?
  

What are my odds of winning? of drawing? Is there a way out?

Button Men Game #656327
Reverse Battle From Game 653873

Skills in this game: Twin, Doppleganger, W Swing, X Swing
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Envy (D4 D6 D10 D12 DX) Score: 43 (9.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 1 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: 20-sided die, 12-sided die

Doppleganger 4-sided die	Doppleganger 6-sided die	Doppleganger 12-sided die		Doppleganger X Swing (with 4 sides)
1	1	12		4 Captured last turn
Twin Die (both with 6 sides)	10-sided die	Twin W Swing (with 4 and 4 sides)
4	9	7

Opponent: devious *toaster oven* *Gold Medal in Women's Bars* *Bronze Medal in Women's Fencing* *Gold Medal in Women's Marathon* *Bronze Medal in Women's Synchronized Swimming* *Gold Medal in Women's Weightlifing*
Button Man: Buck Godot ((6,6) 10 12 20 (W,W)) Score: 29 (-9.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 2 / 0
Captured Dice: Doppleganger 10-sided die, Doppleganger X Swing 4-sided die

A test of intuition -- or of risk-aversion

This is not a DEEP position -- a few moment's calculation will figure out the best move. But what's your instinctive move here? To WIN you must attack with the poison, be captured AND capture the remaining die on the next turn. But which die to take first?

Actually, it's more subtle than that -- one choice may have a lower chance of a WIN, but at least guarantees the draw, while the other includes a possible loss. Many people might shun any possibility of a loss (especially as I've already lost 2 rounds!) -- but is that really sensible?
What's the win-loss probability for the next game?

I don't have a perfect answer for this -- if I could do THAT computation, this blog would look very different. I could use the Strik-Unicorn data on the web site, if I trusted it -- what size swing die did THOSE people use? Or, given that I'm struggling in this match, use the 1-2 data I have here and estimate my chances at 33% if we tie this round. Or, maybe I should factor in game #637706, earlier in the match, where I beat Unicorn 3-0 -- so my chances go up to 67% in another game!



Button Men Game #654469

Tournament #12842: "Beating the stats" tournament for Gman97216 (organized by glassonion)

Top 10 buttons ranked 40-60% overall using which gman97216 has played 16 or more games. Please pick randomly.

Skills in this game: Focus, Poison, Shadow, X Swing
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Strik (8 p10 s16 16 X) Score: 20 (-24 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 2 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: Focus 12-sided die, 4-sided die, Focus 6-sided die

Poison 10-sided die	16-sided die
9	15
4-sided die	20-sided die
4	7

Opponent: Toppler *Lord of 11's*
Button Man: Unicorn (4 4 f6 f12 20) Score: 56 (24 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 1 / 0
Captured Dice: Shadow 16-sided die, X Swing 20-sided die, 8-sided die

another tess puzzle! what should "theAlmighty" do?

does he have a good chance of winning this round? tieing? what's his best move?

Viewing Game #653937 
Reverse Battle From Game 651502
This game was last modified on Sat Oct 25, 2008 18:12:21

* Next Turn * Player: theAlmighty *heavenly* *Silver Medal in Men's Basketball* *Silver Medal in Men's Fencing* *Silver Medal in Men's Judo* *Gold Medal in Men's Table Tennis* * Next Turn *
Button Man: Strik    Score: 16 (-17.3 sides)   Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 2 / 0 (out of 3 round(s))
Captured Dice: X Swing 20-sided die

Dice	8-sided die	Poison 10-sided die	X Swing (with 4 sides)
Value	7	8	3
Dice	Null 4-sided die	8-sided die	12-sided die	Null 20-sided die
Value	3	8	6	9

Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic* 
Button Man: Tess    Score: 42 (17.3 sides)   Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 2 / 0
Captured Dice: 16-sided die, Shadow 16-sided die

Oh, yay! A Tess problem!

Have I mentioned that I love null dice? Tess is not the greatest recipe, of course,
but I still love puzzles involving null dice.

Actually, maybe this only involves them tangentially. Isn't my best bet to get the 20-sided to survive? But should I take the shadow 16? or maybe something else?


Button Men Game #653937
Reverse Battle From Game 651502

Skills in this game: Null, Poison, Shadow, X Swing
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Tess (n4 8 12 n20 X) Score: 20 (5.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 2 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: None

Null 4-sided die	8-sided die	12-sided die	Null 20-sided die	X Swing (with 20 sides)
1	8	10	12	6
8-sided die	Poison 10-sided die	Shadow 16-sided die	16-sided die	X Swing (with 4 sides)
2	8	16	12	4

Opponent: theAlmighty *heavenly* *Silver Medal in Men's Basketball* *Silver Medal in Men's Fencing* *Silver Medal in Men's Judo* *Gold Medal in Men's Table Tennis*
Button Man: Strik (8 p10 s16 16 X) Score: 12 (-5.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 1 / 0

Two questions about this situation

1. does it make more sense to use my 20-sided die or my 18-sided die?
2. does it make more sense to take his die with value 2 or one of the dice with value 4?

For both of these, there are tradeoffs (for example, in #2, the three dice with value 4 threaten only 6 values of my rerolled die (1,2,3,4,8,12) vs. 7 threatened values if he's left with two values of 4 and one value of 2 (1,2,3,4,6,8,10); on the other hand, leaving with him with unrolled dice of value 2 may be preferable on subsequent turns to leaving him with unrolled dice of value 4.

Anyway, there must be a single best answer -- but without doing the explicit calculations, I can't quite see it.


Skills in this game: Reserve, Unique, X Swing, Y Swing
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Guillermo (6 10 20 uX uY) Score: 33.5 (6.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 2 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: 4-sided die, 10-sided die

20-sided die	Unique X Swing (with 18 sides)	Unique Y Swing (with 1 sides)		10-sided die
20	13	1		1 Captured last turn
4-sided die	4-sided die	4-sided die	4-sided die
4	2	4	4

Opponent: jimmosk *Classically Fuzzy* *Bronze Medal in Men's Bars* *Bronze Medal in Men's Judo*
Button Man: Soja's Guardians (4 4 4 4 4 10 r10 r12) Score: 24 (-6.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 2 / 0
Captured Dice: 6-sided die, 10-sided die

what's more profitable?

I could either reroll my 20-sided die in an attempt to get one more high number (but probably allow him one more turn to capture a die before having to reroll his (9,9)-sided die);
or I could reroll either my 14-sided die or 13-sided die, capturing his (6,6)-sided die, and almost certainly forcing him to reroll sooner -- but almost assuredly with smaller values on my own dice! I haven't worked the math out specifically on this, but initially, I thought one was obviously right -- now I'm not so sure. What do you think?



Button Men Game #653086
This game is 'for fun' and does not count for player rankings.
Arena Game: Generate a Random Button Man: Fantasy/Club Foglio (4 Dice, Swing)

Skills in this game: Turbo, Twin, V Swing, Y Swing
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: RandomBM ((4,4) 14 20 20 Y) Score: 51.5 (7.6 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 1 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: Twin V Turbo Swing Die (both with 12 sides)

Twin Die (both with 4 sides)	14-sided die	20-sided die	Y Swing (with 13 sides)		20-sided die
2	11	3	11		12 Captured last turn
10-sided die	Twin Die (both with 6 sides)	Twin Die (both with 9 sides)
1	7	15

Opponent: taurik *mindmeld* *Cunning 7*
Button Man: RandomBM (10 (6,6) (9,9) (V,V)!) Score: 40 (-7.6 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 1 / 0
Captured Dice: 20-sided die

Back again -- morphing die question

So j. has to attack, and almost certainly should take the morphing-20 sided die.
but does it make sense to take it with HIS morphing die? argument yes: he needs big dice
to have a chance of forcing me to reroll my 20-sided dice; argument no: it's almost certain to get captured, and he'd give me 8 points as his morphing die increases.... also, does rerolling with your other dice showing 3-5-5 threaten me as much as rerolling with the remaining dice showing 3-4-5? Maybe the fact that MY two other small dice show 3 and 1 mitigates this somewhat.

or am I grasping at straws here and overthinking it? remember this is all BEFORE doing any specific computation...

Tournament #12831: "Beating the stats" tournament for Jl8e Current Round: Round 4. (organized by glassonion)

Top 10 buttons ranked 40-60% overall using which jl8e has played 10 or more games. Please pick randomly.

This game was last modified on Fri Oct 3, 2008 08:01:11

Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Button Man: Talus Score: 57 (24.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 1 / 0 (out of 3 round(s))
Captured Dice: 20-sided die

Dice	4-sided die	Morphing 20-sided die	20-sided die	20-sided die	X Swing (with 10 sides)
Value	3	4	19	18	1
Dice	4-sided die	Morphing 12-sided die	20-sided die	X Swing (with 5 sides)
Value	3	4	5	5

* Next Turn * Player: jimmosk *Classically Fuzzy* *Bronze Medal in Men's Bars* *Bronze Medal in Men's Judo* * Next Turn *
Button Man: Talus Score: 20.5 (-24.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 1 / 0
Captured Dice: None

Results from last turn:
ElihuRoot is performing a skill attack with a Morphing 12-sided die showing 10,a 20-sided die showing 7 and a X Swing 10-sided die showing 1,
targeting jimmosk's 20-sided die showing 18.

Since ElihuRoot attacked with a morphing die (Morphing 12-sided die showing 10), the number of sides it has is changed to 20.
The Morphing 20-sided die is rerolled and the new value is 4.
The 20-sided die is rerolled and the new value is 19.
The X Swing 10-sided die is rerolled and the new value is 1.

It has been too long since I posted -- well, here's a new puzzle.

To win, I've got to get bmai to reroll the 20-sider, and sooner is much better
than later. On the other hand, I really don't want him to be able to reroll the
12-sider, either. What do you think I should do?

Button Men Game #642946
Play the AI! You will be assimilated and stuff.

Skills in this game: Focus
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Phoenix (4 6 f8 10 f20) Score: 26 (-14 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 2 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: 10-sided die, Focus 6-sided die

4-sided die	6-sided die	10-sided die		Focus 8-sided die
4	5	10		4 Captured last turn
6-sided die	Focus 12-sided die	20-sided die
4	3	16

Opponent: bmai *AI* *111111101001000001100 as of 9-22-03*
Button Man: Kakita (6 f6 10 f12 20) Score: 47 (14 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 1 / 0
Captured Dice: Focus 20-sided die, Focus 8-sided die

bmai's Response

I am 45.5% in 55 games against you. I am 31.0% in 29 games when playing Kakita. I am 52.0% in 25 games when playing against Phoenix.

OK, this one is slightly doctored from an original game... but here's the general idea
it's the "coming out" roll, and while the opponent has the initiative, you have focus dice
Say you have (this is really what I *did* have, as Konami)
6-sided die showing 3 ,
8-sided die showing 2,
Focus 10-sided die showing 5,
Focus 10-sided die showing 2, and
X Swing 20-sided die showing 13

OK? but your opponent has

4-sided die showing 1
12-sided die showing 3
12-sided die showing 1
20-sided die showing 15
X Swing 20-sided die showing 18

In the original (the two dice with value 1 were shadow dice, but that gets in the way here, so I'm changing it.)

OK, so there's no doubt you're going to turn both focus dice to 1 to get initiative. But the question I want to pose is -- does it make ANY sense to take the 20 sided die showing 15 over the 20 sided die showing 18? This may seem like a no-brainer, but I was momentarily caught up short by some arguments for it...

what's most important ?

taking his 20 sided die? repositioning mine? or taking his die with the largest value?

Button Men Game #630876
Tournament Legal challenge, copying communication from game 629596

Skills in this game: Focus, Reserve
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Sailor Mars (4 6 10 20 r6 r10 r10 20) Score: 20 (-15.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 1 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: None

4-sided die	6-sided die	10-sided die	20-sided die		20-sided die
3	6	9	7		8 Captured last turn
4-sided die	4-sided die	Focus 6-sided die	Focus 12-sided die	20-sided die
4	4	1	12	1

Opponent: theAlmighty *heavenly*
Button Man: Unicorn (4 4 f6 f12 20) Score: 43 (15.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 0 / 0
Captured Dice: 20-sided die

what do you think? did llamapez make the right move?

I had meant to post the question before ll's move, but didn't have the opportunity to save the game position at that time. So now, it's a retrospective question -- maybe that's an interesting variant way to present the problem. What would have been the best thing for ll. to do?

Button Men Game #628072
This game is 'for fun' and does not count for player rankings.
Arena Game: Generate a Random Button Man: CRAZY (4 Dice, Swing, Five skils on 1 or more Dice)

Skills in this game: Turbo, Twin, Option, Chance, Doppleganger, Fire, Focus, Weak, Morphing, Ornery, Poison, Queer, Shadow, W Swing, X Swing

Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: RandomBM (oh8 q8 (10,10) ospfX! s19) Score: 47 (-9.6 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 0 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: Option Morphing Chance Fire 20/30 30-sided die, Twin Die (both with 12 sides), Doppleganger W Swing 7-sided die

Weak Ornery 2-sided die	Ornery Focus Poison Shadow X Turbo Swing (with 15 sides)		Queer 8-sided die
2	1		6 Captured last turn
Twin Die (both with 2 sides)	Doppleganger 6-sided die	Shadow 19-sided die
3	3	15

Opponent: llamapez
Button Man: RandomBM ((2,2) D6 cFm20/30 (12,12) DW s19) Score: 61.5 (9.6 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 2 / 0
Captured Dice: Twin Die (both with 10 sides), Shadow 19-sided die, Queer 8-sided die

llamapez's Response

So I says to myself... I says, all I have to do is *not* roll an 8. I rolled an 8.

Select an attack: Power Attack Shadow Attack Skill Attack

Use the space below to include a message.

Like the missing date/time stamp or the color change? Comment on it on the message board

Player Communication
llamapez Mon Feb 25, 2008 14:50:44	So I says to myself... I says, all I have to do is *not* roll an 8. I rolled an 8.

Game Communication is viewable by: Game Players only Everyone (Opponent must also choose this option)

Results from last turn

llamapez is performing a skill attack with a Twin Die (both with 2 sides) showing 4 and a Doppleganger 6-sided die showing 2, targeting ElihuRoot's Queer 8-sided die showing 6. The Twin Die (both with 2 sides) is rerolled and the new value is 3. The Doppleganger 6-sided die is rerolled and the new value is 3. llamapez takes ElihuRoot's die.

what do you think I should do?

on the one hand, I need to capture BOTH A's 10 and 12 sided dice to win;
on the other hand, rerolling the 13-sided die right now seems like a bad idea.

Button Men Game #628960

Tournament #12772: Six letter names Current Round: Round 1. (organized by Anders)

Choose as you wish.

Skills in this game: Reserve, X Swing
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Brigid (8 8 X X X) Score: 50.5 (2.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 0 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: 20-sided die, 20-sided die

8-sided die	X Swing (with 13 sides)		8-sided die
4	13		7 Captured last turn
4-sided die	10-sided die	12-sided die
1	10	7

Opponent: Anders *ONE MILLION POINTS* *Fanatic*
Button Man: Tenchi (4 10 12 20 r4 r12 20 r20) Score: 47 (-2.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 1 / 0
Captured Dice: X Swing 13-sided die, X Swing 13-sided die, 8-sided die

fighting speed dice

Kuni is in a dangerous position here, to be sure -- even the best move doesn't have much chance of winning. But that said, are some moves much more dangerous than others?


Viewing Game #628886

Tournament #12805: "Beating the stats" tournament for Glassonion Current Round: Round 1. (organized by glassonion)

See the Special Tournaments board for an explanation, if you need one. Glassonion's top ten buttons with overall win percentages of 40-60%. Please choose randomly.

This game was last modified on Mon Feb 25, 2008 14:40:30

* Next Turn * Player: Kuni *imzadi* *Ring of Air* *The Collector* * Next Turn *
Button Man: Social Class Score: 13 (-16 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 1 / 0 (out of 3 round(s))
Captured Dice: None

Dice	Option 6/8 (with 6 sides)	Option 8/10 (with 8 sides)	Option 12/20 (with 12 sides)
Value	5	8	1
Dice	Trip 1-sided die	10-sided die	10-sided die	Speed 12-sided die	Y Swing (with 13 sides)
Value	1	1	1	10	5

Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Button Man: slamkrypare Score: 37 (16 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 0 / 0
Captured Dice: Option 4/6 4-sided die, Option 10/12 10-sided die

Don't believe the statistics!

I never know how much credence to give the statistics compiled on buttonmen.com -- especially those created by the "adoptions" that encouraged players to generate data on every possible matchup -- but how good is that data?

Even beforehand, there are lots of buttons that I think are "better" than their statistics indicate -- I suppose there must also be buttons that are worse than their statistics, but those don't jump out at me.

It's most notable with buttons with atrocious records and unusual recipes -- Max, Tess, Socrates, maybe Synthia. I'm not going to say any of these are GOOD in some absolute sense (well, maybe Max is good, at least against many opponents) -- just that they are better than their stats.

I used to wonder if one possible source of misleadingly low statistics is that buttons play more often against others in the same set, and the runt of the litter on Krypton might still be Superman on earth. [am I using that analogy correctly? I don't really know the Superman mythos.] I don't actually have any examples of this, though!

I still think the real isue is that some buttons are just subtle to play --and if you suddenly get one of them in a randomly chosen matchup, you're not likely to make optimal decisions.

There were several examples listed with Max (also this) in this blog a few months ago; maybe the thing to do next is to pick other strange buttons -- especially buttons with misleadingly low statistics -- and try to see what's going on with them, maybe through examples. I'd be interested to hear if anyone else has can suggest particular buttons they think are better than their stats.

What do you think?

A. almost certainly needs to reroll his 20-sided die; but is it worth it for him to to go after my 12-sided die? or is the stinger more important?


Viewing Game #626870
Tournament Legal challenge, copying communication from game 626663
This game was last modified on Thu Feb 7, 2008 10:33:17

* Next Turn * Player: Anders *ONE MILLION POINTS* *Fanatic* * Next Turn *
Button Man: Scorpion Score: 22 (2.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 2 / 0 (out of 3 round(s))
Captured Dice: None

Dice	4-sided die	4-sided die	Focus 4-sided die	Focus 12-sided die	20-sided die
Value	3	2	1	4	5
Dice	4-sided die	Stinger 4-sided die	Stinger 6-sided die	12-sided die	X Swing (with 11 sides)
Value	3	1	5	11	8

Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Button Man: Cass Score: 18.5 (-2.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 2 / 0
Captured Dice: None

two in a day!

I've already taken my turn in this game, but I now think I did the wrong thing;
in any case, what do you think? If I can capture any three of his dice I win -- but
what should I do *right* now? This is VERY much about maneuvering to a good endgame...

Button Men Game #624310

Skills in this game: Twin, Reserve, V Swing
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Rini (2 4 6 6 4 r10 r12 r12) Score: 11 (-19.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 1 / 1 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: None

2-sided die	4-sided die	6-sided die	6-sided die	4-sided die
2	4	5	6	1
20-sided die	20-sided die	20-sided die	Twin V Swing (with 10 and 10 sides)
16	20	13	11

Opponent: Anders *ONE MILLION POINTS* *Fanatic*
Button Man: Bill (20 20 20 (V,V)) Score: 40 (19.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 1 / 1
Captured Dice: None

Supergerm puzzle

I think I like playing Max a little more, since the 2 swing dice in Max add yet another wrinkle to the misere game -- but the general principles are still much the same and often counterintuitive.
Maybe this one is a little simpler, since we're already in the endgame [the usual oddness in a max or supergerm game is how to best steer things to a good endgame] -- but what do I need to do here, do you think?

Skills in this game: Option, Poison, X Swing
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Super Germ (p10 p12 p16 p20 p24 p30 p30 pX) Score: -110 (-70.6 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 1 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: X Swing 4-sided die, Option 6/12 6-sided die

Poison 16-sided die	Poison 20-sided die	Poison 24-sided die	Poison 30-sided die	Poison 30-sided die		Poison X Swing (with 12 sides)
1	12	22	23	7		9 Captured last turn
8-sided die	Option 6/12 (with 6 sides)	Option 12/20 (with 12 sides)
3	4	1

Opponent: lurch *Addams*
Button Man: Captain Bingo (8 6/12 6/12 12/20 X) Score: -4 (70.6 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 1 / 0
Captured Dice: Poison 10-sided die, Poison 12-sided die, Poison X Swing 12-sided die