similar risk-aversion theme?

OK, I have to attack with the Doppleganger 12-sided die; But lots of issues are in tension with each other --

• likelihood of the D-12 -- or rather, whatever it becomes after the capture -- rolling high enough to survive one more turn.
• if I don't roll high, what die will he be using on the reroll, and how likely is it to roll a 2?
• how many points will I lose when/if he captured whatever my doppleganger has become?
  

What are my odds of winning? of drawing? Is there a way out?

Button Men Game #656327
Reverse Battle From Game 653873

Skills in this game: Twin, Doppleganger, W Swing, X Swing
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Envy (D4 D6 D10 D12 DX) Score: 43 (9.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 1 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: 20-sided die, 12-sided die

Doppleganger 4-sided die	Doppleganger 6-sided die	Doppleganger 12-sided die		Doppleganger X Swing (with 4 sides)
1	1	12		4 Captured last turn
Twin Die (both with 6 sides)	10-sided die	Twin W Swing (with 4 and 4 sides)
4	9	7

Opponent: devious *toaster oven* *Gold Medal in Women's Bars* *Bronze Medal in Women's Fencing* *Gold Medal in Women's Marathon* *Bronze Medal in Women's Synchronized Swimming* *Gold Medal in Women's Weightlifing*
Button Man: Buck Godot ((6,6) 10 12 20 (W,W)) Score: 29 (-9.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 2 / 0
Captured Dice: Doppleganger 10-sided die, Doppleganger X Swing 4-sided die