Tuesday, December 9, 2008

At first, I thought there was a choice here, but

Upon reflection, one move is clearly superior. Do you agree?

Button Men Game #658570

This game is 'for fun' and does not count for player rankings.
Arena Game: Random BM from Victorian Horror

Skills in this game: Stealth, Focus, Stinger, Null, Shadow, X Swing
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Invisible Man (n4 d6 d10 ng10 d20) Score: 18 (-2 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 1 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: None
Null
4-sided die
Stealth
6-sided die
Stealth
10-sided die
Stealth
20-sided die
Stinger Null
10-sided die
1 4 10 3 5
Captured last turn
Focus Shadow
4-sided die
8-sided die Shadow
10-sided die
16-sided die X Swing
(with 4 sides)
1 4 2 10 3
Opponent: Dispater *Flagless in Chicago*
Button Man: Count Dracula (sf4 8 s10 16 X) Score: 21 (2 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 2 / 0
Captured Dice: Stinger Null 10-sided die
Select an attack:

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I don't see how you have a choice, ElihuRoot! Since three of your remaining buttons are stealth and the other is null, you're going to have to make an attack (whether Power or Skil)l that uses the null die, and in fact the only ones you can make are to take the focus shadow [4] with your null die, or the [8] with the null plus your [20].
If you do the latter, Dispater will still be able to take your stealth [8], getting a pretty significant lead. So it's the former (which still puts your score at -0.6 I think), and hope that you reroll a four so Dispater has to use a die bigger than their [4] to attack it with -- or else you won't be able to make any more attacks and will lose.

-jimmosk

Ted said...

I think you have the two options down, and I suspect your answer is correct -- but I do want to think through the skill attack option a bit more.

to do the other case first:
taking the focus-shadow 4-sided die with just the null die, puts me down 1 point (.6 sides) -- and if I don't roll a four, game over. if I *do* roll a four, his best move is to capture with the shadow 10, giving him a 90% chance of winning [and, even if it DOES roll a 7, he'd still have a chance if my recapture puts my stealth-20 at risk.
so I have LESS than 1 chance in 40 via this method.

On the other hand, if I take his 8-sided die with the null+stealth 20, I definitely give up at least the stealth 6 (and maybe the stealth 20, if I roll 3-6 or 11-16 -- thats 50% right there! I haven't worked those through, but I'm pretty darn sure I have no chance if that happens -- for that matter, if the stealth rolls 17-20, I won't have any counterattack possibilities after losing the null and we can consider that game over). so let's assume the stealth 20 rolls either a 1-2 or 7-9 -- I nulled out the 8 sider (gaining 2.6 sides) but lost my stealth-6, for a net losss of 3.3 sides, putting me 5.333 sides down. If I can null out 16 sides without further loss -- or maybe even capture something with my two remaining stealth dice [not likely, given the 10-sided die has value 10], mauybe I can make this up! -- is there any way I could possibly null out the 16 sided die? If the null die rolled 1,2, or 3, in the skill attach and the the stealth 20 rolled 9,8,7 then the stealth would be safe from recapture, and the threat would be there. dispater might capture the null die instead of taking my stealth 6 -- but he'd be down .6 points and would not want to risk losing the skill attack on the stealth 6 -- but if he rerolls the shadow 10, he'd be safe [since my stealth die must have value at least 7 to be in this situation] -- in the one case when the null rolled a 1 and the stealth rolled a 9, he'd have to use the 16-sided die to take the null, and if he rerolled 13 or 14, I'd be able to take it via only stealth dice... still, this is pretty unlikely, 1/80 * 1/8... not worth much.

if my stealth rerolled a 1 or a 2, I can similarly invent a nasty chain of events where, after he takes the stealth 6 sided die, he's forced to reroll the 16 sided die... but it would again be pretty fantastic.