I think this problem could be tweaked to be more subtle, but it still illustrates an interesting computation.

I'm not sure this is hard -- devious obviously must take both of my dice to win -- but the weak dice might make the strategy trickier (or do they? I think I could tweak the values in this puzzle to make it a lot more borderline, this is close but not too hard to resolve)

Anyway, devious has 3 possible attacks, but  one of them (taking my (8) with the weak die with current value 7) is clearly no good, after the weak die reduces, there'll be no way to make a skill attack sum to 12. 

So should he take my (8) via skill attack? he'd have only two chances out of 6 (rerolling a 4 or 5) of being able to then take my s(12) and win.

Or should he take my s(12) via skill attack? both weak dice would reduce to 6 sides, and if I'm able to take both, I'll win. But if I only manage to take one, the other one will reduce to 4 sides when it recaptures me... From the current score, he'll gain 20 of my sides, but lose l lose 6 sides that are captured, and another 6 sides would be lost to weak-dice reduction... I think he squeaks through. 

But what are my chances of being able to take both of his weak dice?

I have a question, but not an answer.

This is not the most fun button to play -- but sometimes there might be an interesting decision to make. Is this one of those times?

I need to gain 50 more sides to at least draw. I can see two possible paths to that

To achieve a tie while only losing ONE p(30),  I'd have to capture all of von pinn's dice, for a net gain of 26 sides, and lose no more than the 4 sides of the g(4). To do this, I must immediately get the (12) sided die to safety.

On the other hand,  if I somehow manage to get both p(30)s captured, I'll probably win -- unlesss I eat the p(6,6) but not the (20) along the way. How likely is this to be achievable? And what should I do first if I wanted to pursue this strategy? Or should I just try to save the (12) sided die first, and then turn to this as a back-up plan?

"Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line"

 The_T can only win this round if I eat the poison. But is it safer for him to start capturing my dice with  the poison and hope it rerolls low enough to be captured, or to leave it vulnerable to the skill attack from my (4) and (8) and instead take my focus die with his (12)?

Mood Swing Computations

 

I have 3 possible attacks, though if I do attack with the mood swing, it has to make more sense to take the H(8), doesn't it?  The real choice is between 

• taking the poison with the (5) -- and we all know that has a 40% chance of rerolling 4 or 5 and thus winning, but the other 60% of the time, the H(8) will take the 5, grow-to-a-10-sided die and,  it must roll 1-4 (40% chance) for me to win. that's .4 + ,6*.4 = .64, which isn't so bad -- or .
• taking the H(8) with the mood swing, which seems a lot harder to calculate:
• what size will it become?
• will it roll 1-2? or 8 or more? what types of outcomes will result in my loss? how likely are they?

Can d. save this round?

 

I've almost won this round -- but is there any sequence of attacks devious could make that has a chance -- however improbable -- of winning? (Without assuming I cooperate to throw the round, of course.) 

Mr. Spock : Difficult to be precise, Captain. I should say, approximately 7,824.7 to 1. (quote from ST:TOS "Errand of Mercy")

 

This isn't that bad, but irilyth's only chance of winning is to lose his poison (but not his (4)), yet capture all my dice. This is pretty unlikely to happen no matter what attack he makes here, but what attack would give him his best chance of success?

almost anything *could* work,

 A case could be made for taking the poison -- but with which die?

But isn't it better to take the (4)? but with which die?

One truth prevails

 

Is it obvious what Cyozar should do here?

threading a needle

 

At first glance, I thought this was an interesting choice -- devious must reroll the (10/20=20), but is he  better off capturing the (12) or the q(6). But upon reflection, it's not a hard choice at all.

I almost said the wrong thing

I was about to write that Cycozar has only one move here that provides any chance of winning, but I realize now that's not literally true. The odds aren't good in any case, but what is the best move and what chances does it have? And what's the second best move, what chances does it have?

basic computation

What's the probability that, with optimal play, randomlife can with this round and thus the game?

Maybe I'm wrong

 

I could do the speed attack here,and 9 times out of 10 roll high enough to secure a draw. But, I'm finding the New York Button really hard to play (you often lose the z(30) on the very first turn), and can't afford to pass up the possible win, so instead I should ... well, what SHOULD I do? REALLY? and what are my chances, roughly? 

not difficult, but maybe a little counterintuitive (maybe not), and maybe illustrative of something.

Which of the four possible attacks here gives glassonion the best chance of winning?

I know what I did, but I'm still not sure it's right.

 

which should I take, the stinger (doing so would keep my (20) safe from skill attack) or the (12,12) (to get it out of the way and keep from rerolling even higher than my (20))?

mildly counterintuitive, but actually an easy computation.

 

It's not hard to do the explicit math here, but what's your intuition? I must attack with my (12), but should I take the p(10) or the (X=4)?