I have 3 possible attacks, though if I do attack with the mood swing, it has to make more sense to take the H(8), doesn't it? The real choice is between
- taking the poison with the (5) -- and we all know that has a 40% chance of rerolling 4 or 5 and thus winning, but the other 60% of the time, the H(8) will take the 5, grow-to-a-10-sided die and, it must roll 1-4 (40% chance) for me to win. that's .4 + ,6*.4 = .64, which isn't so bad -- or .
- taking the H(8) with the mood swing, which seems a lot harder to calculate:
- what size will it become?
- will it roll 1-2? or 8 or more? what types of outcomes will result in my loss? how likely are they?
1 comment:
I would probably use mood die to capture H(8). Mood can change to the following sizes: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 20, or 30.
I am assuming there is equal chance for each, right? That's 1/9 for each.
If it becomes 1 or 2 (2/9 chance for that) you roll below 3 for sure, but you drop in sides from X=6 so it should be enough to win even if opponent grabs your remaning dice (also you didnt eat their poison then).
Even if it becomes 4 you have good chance to win, as you still drop in sides from current 6.
If it becomes large, like 20 or 30, you have very good chance to roll safe.
So only d6, d8, d10 and d12 can be problematic... but that's 4/9 chance plus you need a low roll...
I dont have the calculations, but it seems it all adds up to more than 40% chance of winning - though it is probably nor that much more... Maybe 55%?
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