trogdor vs. werner

Subtlety is not Trogdor's strong suit -- but is there anything he can do in this situation to have a chance of winning?

stop and think

ONE: AD will almost certainly take my 8-sided die -- but does it make more sense to make the attack with his d(12) than his d(8)?

TWO:  a little later in the same round.  AD will take my 6-sided die, but does it make more sense to make the attack with his d(12) than his d(8)?

back from the grave

Key issues

• irilyth need to keep more than 14 sides uncaptured to win. the #(X=17) is the only die that can win for him by itself. This makes me think I should take that die right now with my p(6,6).
• but that #(12) die is currently showing 11, if I neither take it nor reroll the (10) and (W=12) dice, I'm setting myself up for a rush attack. if my poison rolls below 8, I might well be in a situation where the #(12) and the (8) sided die are left uncaptured at the end.

Which matters more? what attack gives me the best chance of winning the round?

how much difference between the best and second best moves?

He's not going to take the poison, of course, but AD still doesn't have much chance here. How much does it matter which way he captures the X-swing? 

silly question

I'm likely to win this round -- to put it mildly -- but what is the probability blackshadowshade can pull off an upset with best play?

counting exercise

What should irilyth do?