My gut says d12 the first time, because the d4 showing 1 means you can't force a d12 re-roll, but d8 the second time, hoping to widen the range where the d12 is hittable. I have no numbers to back my position, because they seem fairly complicated and I haven't had my tea yet.
I agree d12 on the first roll, you have at TWO chances of forcing the d12 to reroll (rolling a 12 or a 5) and the chances of rolling the almost-certainly fatal numbers 1,2 or 4 is less than with the d8.
on the second roll, there's still a case to be made for the rolling the d12: you are HONESTLY dead if you roll a 1 or 2 and that's less likely with the d12. on the other hand, if that DOESN'T happen, you'd be somewhat better off with a higher value on the d8.
d12 first time. We need him to reroll his d12. It's a war of attrition and you can only win if he rerolls his 12. We want a 5 or 12 on our roll. this one is trickier, but I'd go d12. Again we need him to reroll his d12, Whatever we roll on the d12, other than 1,2,or 4, will cause him to roll his d12 on our 12. the 3 on the 8 only gives us a 25% chance of getting his d12 if he rerolls. For the d8, it is below expected value and should roll higher than a 3, but we need it higher than a 5, or else he takes it out with his small dice So without actually crunching all the percents for each roll, I go with the d12 on both rolls.
3 comments:
My gut says d12 the first time, because the d4 showing 1 means you can't force a d12 re-roll, but d8 the second time, hoping to widen the range where the d12 is hittable. I have no numbers to back my position, because they seem fairly complicated and I haven't had my tea yet.
I agree d12 on the first roll, you have at TWO chances of forcing the d12 to reroll (rolling a 12 or a 5) and the chances of rolling the almost-certainly fatal numbers 1,2 or 4 is less than with the d8.
on the second roll, there's still a case to be made for the rolling the d12: you are HONESTLY dead if you roll a 1 or 2 and that's less likely with the d12. on the other hand, if that DOESN'T happen, you'd be somewhat better off with a higher value on the d8.
d12 first time. We need him to reroll his d12. It's a war of attrition and you can only win if he rerolls his 12. We want a 5 or 12 on our roll.
this one is trickier, but I'd go d12. Again we need him to reroll his d12, Whatever we roll on the d12, other than 1,2,or 4, will cause him to roll his d12 on our 12. the 3 on the 8 only gives us a 25% chance of getting his d12 if he rerolls.
For the d8, it is below expected value and should roll higher than a 3, but we need it higher than a 5, or else he takes it out with his small dice
So without actually crunching all the percents for each roll, I go with the d12 on both rolls.
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