Friday, January 11, 2019

silly question


I'm likely to win this round -- to put it mildly -- but what is the probability blackshadowshade can pull off an upset with best play?



3 comments:

James said...

I'd go with 1 in 40.

Unless we count the influence of the RNG.

Ted said...

I think it's significantly better than that. it's 1 in 40 if you take the d8, but taking the d4 is somewhat better. I will respond by taking *your* d8, but if my d8 rolls higher than your d20 did, I'll have to take both, you'll pick up a net of 16 sides for the win. I think it's (7+6+5+4+3+2+1)/160 = 7/40, (17.5%, a little better than one-chance-in-six)

Ted said...

actually, isn't it just 1 in 20 if you take the d8? if you roll a 1, I must take the p20 and I've lost no matter what. taking the d4 is still better, though.