Tuesday, February 19, 2019

how much difference between the best and second best moves?



He's not going to take the poison, of course, but AD still doesn't have much chance here. How much does it matter which way he captures the X-swing? 



1 comment:

JGBlargh said...

To win, AD needs to keep his Stealth and not capture the ps(6)
I think the best way is to use the stealth and his ornery 2. There's a 50% chance the stealth rolls above a 3 and then a 1/16 that Bluffs 16 rolls the correct number to be able to capture it. Actually less, since AD will still have a 1 or 2 on his other dice. This other two will stay a 2, which is what we want.
If you don't use the stealth, there's a 50% chance of rolling a 1, then Bluff takes the non-1 with his 16 and there's a 14/16 chance you are force to eat the poison.
Without actually crunching numbers, I think the odds might be better using the stealth than not.