## Sunday, July 15, 2018

### Hail Mary

What is irilyth's best move?

## Thursday, June 14, 2018

### simple, but I did have to stop for a moment

I have only two choices here. We can -- and should -- do the math, but which one do you think is better?

## Friday, February 23, 2018

### Max vs Bluff, redux

Over 10 years ago (!), I wrote a post about Max vs. Bluff  -- but I no longer remember my reasoning and  the links to the old website don't work anymore so I can't look back at game 604-thousand and something to see what I set my swing die [actually, as I recall, we didn't get detailed game history so maybe I couldn't tell anyway unless I put something in the comments]

I've worked out some possible answers now, but am not as confident as I sounded back then when I was thinking a lot more about Max. Reading another old Max post helps a little

And playing a few new games is refreshing my memory.

Here's a puzzle from a CURRENT game of Max vs. Bluff

It's Bosco312's turn. What's the best capture? there might be more than one reasonably good answer, but there are definitely some significantly less good answers.

## Monday, February 19, 2018

### Null puzzle

I'm up by 4 sides, but I'm very vulernable to a speed attack. But that only gives irilyth a tie. On the other hand, if he does a non-null attack, he could lose if he rolls a 1,2 or 4. Does he have any better options?

## Saturday, December 23, 2017

### Opening theory.

(A) do you think I was right to allow the auxiliary n(20)? I am definitely having second thoughts...

(B) what do you think my best move is in this position? I have a strong opinion, but I'm willing to consider arguments for other moves. (I've already made my move in this game)

## Sunday, November 5, 2017

### this doesn't seem HARD but I don't want to do it.

I've been really enjoying playing with and against the Button "Stick" -- that null speed trip die causes all sorts of interesting decisions.

Here's one where I made what I'm pretty sure is a suboptimal decision just because it was too hard to quickly figure out all the possibilities. I've got to attack with the 12-sided die, but should I take the p(3) or the tzn(16)?

If I take the tzn(16), the calculation is pretty clear. I win if I roll higher than 3 (probability 3/4), OR if I roll lower than 3, but AD rerolls the p(3) to 3 after he captures with it, (probability 1/4*1/3 = 1/12). The sum of those is 10/12, i.e. 5/6.

But what happens if I instead capture the p(3) on my roll. I'm still up 3 sides, but if he nulls out my 12-sided die that will cost me 4 sides and I'll lose -- UNLESS he also nulls out my p(10) -- but he'll try hard not to do that, tripping me rather than being forced to power attack me.. So what happens?

So what happens? if I take the p(3) and reroll 1-5, he'll recapture me with a power attack and hope to roll a 1 or 2 and win for sure; but even if he rolls 3-16 and I have no legal attack, he'll trip attack the p(10), hoping to lose.

but if my reroll after capturing the p(3) is 6-12, he'll trip attack my 12-sided die, hoping to capture it and ALSO NOT have to also capture the p(10), which he'll trip attack if he must. lots of fiddly cases, here, depending on the outcome of the first trip attack.

At first I thought this couldn't work out as good for me as the other option, but as I thought about it, I was less sure. But not less sure enough to want to do the explicit math.

## Wednesday, August 16, 2017

### what's the best move here?

b must take my posion, which will put me slightly ahead on points. What can he do to maximize his chance of victory nonetheless?