Key issues
- irilyth need to keep more than 14 sides uncaptured to win. the #(X=17) is the only die that can win for him by itself. This makes me think I should take that die right now with my p(6,6).
- but that #(12) die is currently showing 11, if I neither take it nor reroll the (10) and (W=12) dice, I'm setting myself up for a rush attack. if my poison rolls below 8, I might well be in a situation where the #(12) and the (8) sided die are left uncaptured at the end.
Which matters more? what attack gives me the best chance of winning the round?
1 comment:
Without crunching numbers.
I'd take the #12. He needs to capture the poison or change his #17 value next turn. Using expected values, I have over a 50% chance of getting the 17. If his 8 was a low value, I might go for the 17 first and allow him the rush next round, since odds his 12 would go lower than my poison
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