(B) what do you think my best move is in this position? I have a strong opinion, but I'm willing to consider arguments for other moves. (I've already made my move in this game)
Saturday, December 23, 2017
Opening theory.
(A) do you think I was right to allow the auxiliary n(20)? I am definitely having second thoughts...
(B) what do you think my best move is in this position? I have a strong opinion, but I'm willing to consider arguments for other moves. (I've already made my move in this game)
(B) what do you think my best move is in this position? I have a strong opinion, but I'm willing to consider arguments for other moves. (I've already made my move in this game)
Sunday, November 5, 2017
this doesn't seem HARD but I don't want to do it.
I've been really enjoying playing with and against the Button "Stick" -- that null speed trip die causes all sorts of interesting decisions.
Here's one where I made what I'm pretty sure is a suboptimal decision just because it was too hard to quickly figure out all the possibilities. I've got to attack with the 12-sided die, but should I take the p(3) or the tzn(16)?
If I take the tzn(16), the calculation is pretty clear. I win if I roll higher than 3 (probability 3/4), OR if I roll lower than 3, but AD rerolls the p(3) to 3 after he captures with it, (probability 1/4*1/3 = 1/12). The sum of those is 10/12, i.e. 5/6.
But what happens if I instead capture the p(3) on my roll. I'm still up 3 sides, but if he nulls out my 12-sided die that will cost me 4 sides and I'll lose -- UNLESS he also nulls out my p(10) -- but he'll try hard not to do that, tripping me rather than being forced to power attack me.. So what happens?
So what happens? if I take the p(3) and reroll 1-5, he'll recapture me with a power attack and hope to roll a 1 or 2 and win for sure; but even if he rolls 3-16 and I have no legal attack, he'll trip attack the p(10), hoping to lose.
but if my reroll after capturing the p(3) is 6-12, he'll trip attack my 12-sided die, hoping to capture it and ALSO NOT have to also capture the p(10), which he'll trip attack if he must. lots of fiddly cases, here, depending on the outcome of the first trip attack.
At first I thought this couldn't work out as good for me as the other option, but as I thought about it, I was less sure. But not less sure enough to want to do the explicit math.
Here's one where I made what I'm pretty sure is a suboptimal decision just because it was too hard to quickly figure out all the possibilities. I've got to attack with the 12-sided die, but should I take the p(3) or the tzn(16)?
If I take the tzn(16), the calculation is pretty clear. I win if I roll higher than 3 (probability 3/4), OR if I roll lower than 3, but AD rerolls the p(3) to 3 after he captures with it, (probability 1/4*1/3 = 1/12). The sum of those is 10/12, i.e. 5/6.
But what happens if I instead capture the p(3) on my roll. I'm still up 3 sides, but if he nulls out my 12-sided die that will cost me 4 sides and I'll lose -- UNLESS he also nulls out my p(10) -- but he'll try hard not to do that, tripping me rather than being forced to power attack me.. So what happens?
So what happens? if I take the p(3) and reroll 1-5, he'll recapture me with a power attack and hope to roll a 1 or 2 and win for sure; but even if he rolls 3-16 and I have no legal attack, he'll trip attack the p(10), hoping to lose.
but if my reroll after capturing the p(3) is 6-12, he'll trip attack my 12-sided die, hoping to capture it and ALSO NOT have to also capture the p(10), which he'll trip attack if he must. lots of fiddly cases, here, depending on the outcome of the first trip attack.
At first I thought this couldn't work out as good for me as the other option, but as I thought about it, I was less sure. But not less sure enough to want to do the explicit math.
Wednesday, August 16, 2017
what's the best move here?
b must take my posion, which will put me slightly ahead on points. What can he do to maximize his chance of victory nonetheless?
Tuesday, August 15, 2017
Another post from an old saved game, but I don't think it's very difficult
This game was from the "old" buttonmen site November, 2011. I saved it (cutting off the bottom rows, unfortunately -- I can't even remember the name of the other button UPDATE: Oh, it's Riff from Sluggy Freelance), obviously thinking there was some sort of post in it -- but what was the question I was going to ask?
It's clear, isn't it, that taking the 20-sided die guarantees at least a draw, which makes more sense than taking the 10-sided die even though it's larger.
Maybe the question was which way to take it? should you reroll the 2,2 and 4-sided dice, or the 8-sided die? You just need to capture ONE more die, after all. And you're almost certain to be able to do it no matter what. What could go wrong? Can you prevent it?
Button Men Game #724118
Tournament Legal challenge, copying communication from game 723689
Skills in this game: Option
It's clear, isn't it, that taking the 20-sided die guarantees at least a draw, which makes more sense than taking the 10-sided die even though it's larger.
Maybe the question was which way to take it? should you reroll the 2,2 and 4-sided dice, or the 8-sided die? You just need to capture ONE more die, after all. And you're almost certain to be able to do it no matter what. What could go wrong? Can you prevent it?
Tournament Legal challenge, copying communication from game 723689
Skills in this game: Option
Wednesday, July 26, 2017
Friday, June 16, 2017
Should I let the poison grow ever larger? [blast from the past!]
I see I'm up to 170 posts -- but I have 97 "drafts" or fragments of posts I saved and never published. Some of them just didn't work out, but I do want to look through them.
This one is from late 2009 -- back on the old site. I have to struggle to figure out what the issue was that motivated me to save the game snapshot. I think the issue is whether I should risk taking the poison now -- it means rerolling the 20-sided die rather than keep it safe (1 chance in 5 or recapture). But if I *don't do it, and make a safe attack, the poison will only grow, and could even roll above the (20) with one chance in 6 and with another 1 in 6 could still threaten me with a power or skill attack.
But maybe it's not a difficult problem. The larger poison doesn't matter so much, I can afford to eat it even if it grows twice and still win -- but if rolls above me and captures me [which isn't a sure thing even with the 1 in 6], would I be in trouble? I don't think so, I'd take both of k's non-poison dice on the way out. and have enough of a margin to afford losing the 20-sided die.
The only thing that would sink me is BOTH capturing the poison AND losing the (20), so it seems clear that I should postpone rerolling the 20. capture non-poison this turn with the other dice, then capture the other non-poison next turn, then whatever happens after that, I'm ok.
Maybe there's a good reason this stayed a draft. But if you edited the button recipes you could make a more subtle problem building on this theme.
Button Men Game #686417
Skills in this game: Mighty, Poison, S Swing, Trip, Y Swing
This one is from late 2009 -- back on the old site. I have to struggle to figure out what the issue was that motivated me to save the game snapshot. I think the issue is whether I should risk taking the poison now -- it means rerolling the 20-sided die rather than keep it safe (1 chance in 5 or recapture). But if I *don't do it, and make a safe attack, the poison will only grow, and could even roll above the (20) with one chance in 6 and with another 1 in 6 could still threaten me with a power or skill attack.
But maybe it's not a difficult problem. The larger poison doesn't matter so much, I can afford to eat it even if it grows twice and still win -- but if rolls above me and captures me [which isn't a sure thing even with the 1 in 6], would I be in trouble? I don't think so, I'd take both of k's non-poison dice on the way out. and have enough of a margin to afford losing the 20-sided die.
The only thing that would sink me is BOTH capturing the poison AND losing the (20), so it seems clear that I should postpone rerolling the 20. capture non-poison this turn with the other dice, then capture the other non-poison next turn, then whatever happens after that, I'm ok.
Maybe there's a good reason this stayed a draft. But if you edited the button recipes you could make a more subtle problem building on this theme.
Button Men Game #686417
| Tournament #13724: revenge on the stats tournament for alaric Current Round: Round 2. (organized by glassonion) |
| Alaric's ten worst buttons with which he has played at least 17 games. If you are alaric, you may choose your button. Everyone else *must* select randomly. |
Skills in this game: Mighty, Poison, S Swing, Trip, Y Swing
Yucky situation!
If I don't take the initiative, AD has a choice between taking my (20) with value 20 or speed attacking the other (20) and the f(8).
But if I *do* take the inittive, I leave myself vulnerable to a speed attack from the z(20) with value 13 unless I take it with my (20) with value 20, which means making a very vulnerable reroll with the other z(20).
I guess I could take the initiative, then reroll my (20) with value 10 -- still very vulnerable reroll, wouldn't capture *either* z(20) and would leave my (20) with value 20 exposed to capture in any case.
What would you do?
But if I *do* take the inittive, I leave myself vulnerable to a speed attack from the z(20) with value 13 unless I take it with my (20) with value 20, which means making a very vulnerable reroll with the other z(20).
I guess I could take the initiative, then reroll my (20) with value 10 -- still very vulnerable reroll, wouldn't capture *either* z(20) and would leave my (20) with value 20 exposed to capture in any case.
What would you do?
Wednesday, May 31, 2017
one easy question, one a little more subtle
It's AnnoDomini's turn and he has two choices -- take my 4-sided die with his 2-sided die, or take my 6-sided die with a skill attack.
If AD chooses option one and I am forced to take the 2-sided die on my next turn, which die should I use? [that should be an easy question]
But is that AD's best chance of winning? would it make more sense for him to do the skill attack?
If AD chooses option one and I am forced to take the 2-sided die on my next turn, which die should I use? [that should be an easy question]
But is that AD's best chance of winning? would it make more sense for him to do the skill attack?
Game #20987 • ElihuRoot (Oni) vs. AnnoDomini (Rhode Island) • Round #2
Reverse
Opponent's turn to attack
(4) (10) f(12) f(12) (V)
Button: Oni
Player: ElihuRoot
|
Player: AnnoDomini
Button: Rhode Island
(4) (4) d(6) d(10) (R)
 |
Matt's Best Move?
(In case it's not clear, the z(20) in white at the far right on the bottom was just captured and is out of play). I'm pretty sure Matt has a single best move in this situation, but I welcome disagreements. Part of the problem is that it's just so likely to end in a draw, I think we racked up four drawn rounds before this game was over (I should have set the V to 11)
Game #21110 • ElihuRoot (Coil) vs. Matt (bowler190) • Round #3
UBFC 145
Opponent's turn to attack
p(4) (12) p(20) (20) (V)
Button: Coil
Player: ElihuRoot
|
Player: Matt
Button: bowler190
z(4) z(4) z(20) z(20) z(20)
 |
Sunday, May 28, 2017
Kublacon 2017
Not a puzzle -- and maybe will followup with other thoughts when I have a moment. But it's at least buttonmen-related:
Don't have time to linger at KublaCon this year, but I did at least get to go to a seminar in which James Ernest talked about the history and design choices involved in buttonmen (only about 7 or 8 people showed up, I would have thought it would be standing room only, but we fit around a conference table). I knew much of this already, but it was still enjuoyable and educational. Plus I got play a game of buttonmen face-to-face with James Ernest! [Also pictured, Joe Kisenwether, game designer/Mathematician for casinos and the designer of several buttons including Max]
Don't have time to linger at KublaCon this year, but I did at least get to go to a seminar in which James Ernest talked about the history and design choices involved in buttonmen (only about 7 or 8 people showed up, I would have thought it would be standing room only, but we fit around a conference table). I knew much of this already, but it was still enjuoyable and educational. Plus I got play a game of buttonmen face-to-face with James Ernest! [Also pictured, Joe Kisenwether, game designer/Mathematician for casinos and the designer of several buttons including Max]
Monday, April 10, 2017
Buttonmen 101, day 1
this isn't hard at all, but it's the sort of basic small computation that comes up often -- I have three possible attacks here, which gives me the best chance of winning? Which gives me the least chance of winning?
Game #20987 • ElihuRoot (Oni) vs. AnnoDomini (Rhode Island) • Round #3
Reverse
Your turn to attack
(4) (10) f(12) f(12) (V)
Button: Oni
Player: ElihuRoot
|
Player: AnnoDomini
Button: Rhode Island
(4) (4) d(6) d(10) (R)
|
yawetag has only a very slim chance in either case
Maybe it's not much of a puzzle as y. only has two legal moves. and in both cases, it would take a miracle to win assuming I make sensible plays -- but are the two required miracles equally miraculous?
Game #17382 • ElihuRoot (Horace) vs. yawetag (Anders) • Round #2
Mad Robin - Season 17
Opponent's turn to attack
(8) (10) p(20) (20) (Z)
Button: Horace
Player: ElihuRoot
|
Player: yawetag
Button: Anders
(8) (8) (8) (8) (8) o(24)
 |
quick!
I notice that when I have a large stack of games waiting for me to make a move on the web site, I tend to wade through them too quickly, making moves at a glance without doing careful analysis. Often I see my mistake just moments too late.
What should I have done instead?
[Actually, in this particular game, maybe it doesn't matter very much -- even with my mistake, I'm probably going to win this round anyway, as g. has to get very lucky on her die rolls to win here. But I could have made it even more difficult for her.]
Oh, shoot, the cut-and-paste lost the value of the capture die (and of course it doesn't include the previous value of the die I used to make the attack. In fact, I my last attack was to use my s(10) which was showing a value of 4 to take g.'s 10 sided die which also had a value of 4. Of course, my s(10) has just rerolled to show a value of 8.
So reset my s(10) to value 4 and give g. back her 10 sided die with value 4 and come up with a better choice for me.
What should I have done instead?
[Actually, in this particular game, maybe it doesn't matter very much -- even with my mistake, I'm probably going to win this round anyway, as g. has to get very lucky on her die rolls to win here. But I could have made it even more difficult for her.]
Oh, shoot, the cut-and-paste lost the value of the capture die (and of course it doesn't include the previous value of the die I used to make the attack. In fact, I my last attack was to use my s(10) which was showing a value of 4 to take g.'s 10 sided die which also had a value of 4. Of course, my s(10) has just rerolled to show a value of 8.
So reset my s(10) to value 4 and give g. back her 10 sided die with value 4 and come up with a better choice for me.
Game #19422 • ElihuRoot (Wastenott) vs. glassonion (King Endymion) • Round #1
reverse
Opponent's turn to attack
s(4) s(8) s(10) s(20) s(X)
Button: Wastenott
Player: ElihuRoot
|
Player: glassonion
Button: King Endymion
(6) (10) (20) (20) r(6) r(10) r(12) r(20)
 |
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