yawetag has only a very slim chance in either case

Maybe it's not much of a puzzle as y. only has two legal moves. and in both cases, it would take a miracle to win assuming I make sensible plays -- but are the two required miracles equally miraculous?

Game #17382  •  ElihuRoot (Horace) vs. yawetag (Anders)  •  Round #2

Mad Robin - Season 17

Opponent's turn to attack

(8) (10) p(20) (20) (Z) Button: Horace Player: ElihuRoot

W/L/T: 1/0/0 (3)  •  Score: 26.5 (-6.3 sides) Dice captured: o(24), (8) (8) 5 (10) 7 p(20) 9 (Z=11) 7 3 (8) 5 (8) 3 (8) 3 (8)  1  (8) Dice captured: (20) W/L/T: 0/1/0 (3)  •  Score: 36 (+6.3 sides)

Player: yawetag Button: Anders (8) (8) (8) (8) (8) o(24)