I know what I would do, but I'm not sure it's right. I'm sure there *is* a right answer, but can anyone come up with a good bit of reasoning, short of working out the full details?
Viewing Game #613092
| Tournament #9596: NFI 1838 - 2 Current Round: Round 6. (organized by kev) |
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Button Man: Hale Score: 40 (5.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 4 / 4 / 0 (out of 5 round(s))
Captured Dice: None
| Dice | Speed 8-sided die | 12-sided die | 20-sided die | 20-sided die | S Swing (with 20 sides) |
| Value | 7 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| Dice | 6-sided die | 6-sided die | Speed 12-sided die | 20-sided die | 20-sided die |
| Value | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
Button Man: Sonia Score: 32 (-5.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 4 / 4 / 0
Captured Dice: None
Results from last turn:
Rolling Dice...
Determining Initative...
It is Gryphon's turn to go first.
3 comments:
My intution is to take the [11/20]. It lets you reroll both of your twenty-siders, giving you two shots to beat the [15/20], which seems like your top priority. It hedges against getting monched by the [7/z8], by giving you a bunch of extra scenarios where G has to choose between using the Speed die or trying to protect the big die. Going after the [12/12] doesn't seem right to me.
OK, that's a reasonable idea -- and I do think people USUALLY worry too much about speed dice; on the other hand, rolling THREE dice and leaving two dice with values of 1 is practically begging to reroll into a speed attack; any die or combination of dice summing to 5,6, or 7 will be trouble -- and even if one of the dice rolls large, he'll have to reroll pretty large at least once, too.
I'm not completely convinced by that -- my instinct is to take the 20-sided die, too -- but the risk is definitely huge.
(Switching the sense of "you" here, since it's G's turn in the game -- I got backwards who was whom.)
The risk of getting hit by a Speed attack is pretty high; the question to my mind is "even if that happens, will I win anyway". :^)
If G loses both of his twenty-siders to a Speed Attack, he's doomed, but if he rolls both his 20-siders that low, he's pretty doomed even if you take pity on him and don't bother to Speed Attack... So I'm sort of ignoring the cases in which he loses both big dice immediately.
It seems less ambiguous if the [12/12] is showing a lower number, because then the risk of losing three dice to a Speed Attack is somewhat more offset by the chance that one of his 20-siders will beat the [15/20], and force you to choose between the Speed Attack and defending your big die. With the [12/12], though, he has to beat a 15 and then beat a 12, so his chances of being able to eat a Speed Attack but then run the table aren't so great. I've definitely seen games with Hale where that happens, though: Lose all the low dice to a Speed Attack, but pound out a victory with the 20-siders anyway.
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