bending a rule

 

I usually don't post a picture from a current game, as I don't want to get advice on what to do or influence future rounds, but this is the final round and I've already committed myself to an answer --  though I'm not at all sure it's correct -- and I think I'd like to post while the situation is fresh in my mind [I have a surprising number of snapshots of game positions that I thought were interesting when I took them, but no longer remember quite what the point I was hoping to make might be.]

But here -- to win,  I need to either

• keep *more* than 10 sides uncaptured -- i.e the X=12, or any two of the other dice.
• allow randomlife to take all my dice but end the game with his poison as the sole uncaptured die.

Unfortunately, I probably have to decide now, still quite early in the round. Should I take the p(X=15)? and if so, with which die should I make the capture? I can see arguments for at least two of them. Or should I push the decision off a little by take non-poison? and which non-poison? and with which die should I make the capture? 

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