I've been distracted from this and haven't posted since last December; but it would be a shame not to post at all in 2021.
Anyway, this round was part of the "go big or go home" tournament, in which the goal is not to conventionally win, but to achieve the highest possible score in one round. In any case, nkmcalli has already won this round -- (and in a prevous round achieved 99 points!) but what should she do to maximize her chances of exceeding 100 on this round?
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Obviously, nkmcalli is looking to capture the s(30) after the (T=2).
Rolling the (2,3) with a target of 5 has a 1/2 * 1/3 = 1/6 chance.
Rolling the (3,4) is not bad, the target values are 2, 5, 6, or 7, which has a chance of 1 - (2 + 3)*(1/3 * 1/4) = 7/12.
Rolling the (4,5) to hit a target value of 3, 6 or 7 has a chance of (2 + 4 + 3) * 1/4 * 1/5 = 9/20 chance.
Rolling the (10) to hit a target of 2, 5, 6, 7, 9, or 10 has a chance of 6/10.
Based on that, it looks like the right die to use to capture is the 10-sider.
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