Easy to do the computation -- but what's your instinct?
Tournament Legal challenge, copying communication from game 689206
This game was last modified on Fri Feb 19, 2010 14:12:59
* Next Turn * Player: Russian *2^12th game cookie* *Ngozi's Disciple* * Next Turn *
Button Man: Dirgo Score: 80 (6.6 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 2 / 0 (out of 3 round(s))
Captured Dice: 30-sided die, 30-sided die
| Dice | 20-sided die | 20-sided die |
| Value | 20 | 12 |
| Dice | 30-sided die | Option 6/30 (with 30 sides) |
| Value | 13 | 10 |
Button Man: Vincent Score: 70 (-6.6 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 2 / 0
Captured Dice: X Swing 20-sided die, 20-sided die
4 comments:
OK, without doing the computation, I actually have no instinctual reaction to this. I really don't know which is better.
Someone feel like showing the calculation? (I'm a tad too lazy at the moment.)
Instinct says take the 10 with my 12. But instinct also says "don't trust instinct", so I'd do the calculation first.
CASE 1: R. takes my val 13 with his val 20; 1/2 the time he wins outright rolling 11 or higher. the other half the time I capture him and he still has 12/30 = 40% chance that I roll 12 or lower. So he will win with probability .5 + .5*.4 = 70% chance.
case 2: R. takes my val 10 with his val 12: only 7/20 = 35% chance of winning outright, but the other 65%, he still has 20/30 chance that I'll reroll lower than 20.
.35 + .65*(2/3) = 47/60 = 78.333%
easier to see from my perspective:
case 1: I win with probability
10/20*18/30 = 180/600
case 2: I win with probability
13/20 * 10/30 = 130/600
Well, I feel justified in having no obvious hunch, since there is not a great difference in probabilities. :)
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