threading a needle

 

At first glance, I thought this was an interesting choice -- devious must reroll the (10/20=20), but is he  better off capturing the (12) or the q(6). But upon reflection, it's not a hard choice at all.

I almost said the wrong thing

I was about to write that Cycozar has only one move here that provides any chance of winning, but I realize now that's not literally true. The odds aren't good in any case, but what is the best move and what chances does it have? And what's the second best move, what chances does it have?

basic computation

What's the probability that, with optimal play, randomlife can with this round and thus the game?

Maybe I'm wrong

 

I could do the speed attack here,and 9 times out of 10 roll high enough to secure a draw. But, I'm finding the New York Button really hard to play (you often lose the z(30) on the very first turn), and can't afford to pass up the possible win, so instead I should ... well, what SHOULD I do? REALLY? and what are my chances, roughly? 

not difficult, but maybe a little counterintuitive (maybe not), and maybe illustrative of something.

Which of the four possible attacks here gives glassonion the best chance of winning?

I know what I did, but I'm still not sure it's right.

 

which should I take, the stinger (doing so would keep my (20) safe from skill attack) or the (12,12) (to get it out of the way and keep from rerolling even higher than my (20))?

mildly counterintuitive, but actually an easy computation.

 

It's not hard to do the explicit math here, but what's your intuition? I must attack with my (12), but should I take the p(10) or the (X=4)?