devious will never get the s(8). Since ElihuRoot has two dice (h(10) and (X=4)) that can take any of the (1)s, if devious doesn't take the d(4) on his next move ElihuRoot can then take away his ability to get the d(4). So if devious forgoes the d(4), his best case scenario is to take one of {h(10), (X=4)}, have one of his (1)s taken, and then take the remaining one of {h(10), (X=4)}. That would give him a score difference gain of (10 + 4 -1) * 1.5 -- less than the 21 he needs.
devious therefore has to take the d(4) to have any chance. Then he'll lose a (1), maybe take the h(10) which might have become an h(8), lose another (1), and maybe take the (X=4), for a score difference gain of (4 + 8 + 4 - 2) * 1.5 = 21, for a tie.
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devious will never get the s(8). Since ElihuRoot has two dice (h(10) and (X=4)) that can take any of the (1)s, if devious doesn't take the d(4) on his next move ElihuRoot can then take away his ability to get the d(4). So if devious forgoes the d(4), his best case scenario is to take one of {h(10), (X=4)}, have one of his (1)s taken, and then take the remaining one of {h(10), (X=4)}. That would give him a score difference gain of (10 + 4 -1) * 1.5 -- less than the 21 he needs.
devious therefore has to take the d(4) to have any chance. Then he'll lose a (1), maybe take the h(10) which might have become an h(8), lose another (1), and maybe take the (X=4), for a score difference gain of (4 + 8 + 4 - 2) * 1.5 = 21, for a tie.
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