Tuesday, May 26, 2020

small math problem


I should have done the math to see which option is better -- rerolling the 20-sided die will eliminate the (10) and has an 80% chance of surviving for the final reroll [though there's a 1/20 chance of rolling a 5 and possibly having both 4-sided dice reroll higher than 2, etc].

But capturing with the (8) has a 50% chance of rerolling out of capture range for a sure victory! Even if not, the (20) will be able to capture on the next round with at least a 50% chance -- probably substantially better than that -- of rolling out of danger. And it's so cool to leave the (20) so low!

Still, I really should have worked it out in detail to know for sure which option is better.




Nala's choice

This came about in a tournament in which the objective is to maximize one's score, not necessarily win the game; of course, Nala's AI wasn't doing that, anyway.

Anyway, Nala has an interesting decision here.  Is it better to capture with the 8-sided die (and if so, which die should she capture?)  Or to capture with the mood-swing die and who knows what may happen?

And -- given that I'm playing in a tournament in which all I care about is my total score, I might prefer her to reroll the  mood-swing. If I lose the round, fine, I have more chances to play rounds in which I'm able to keep my f(20); and if I win the round, I might capture a mood-swing with more than 3-sides.