I think this would have been a much better puzzle if I had taken the screenshot BEFORE capturing, but I didn't think of doing it until after.
First question: Does Hubbub have any chance of winning this game? If so, what would be his best move to optimize that chance?
Second question: I took the 12-sided die with my X-swing (which had a value of 4 before I rerolled it). Had I instead taken the turbo-swing, what would Hubbub's chance of winning have been?
2 comments:
I can't see any route to victory for Zeppo. If the d20 isn't pulled in, tit-for-tat 4-siders means the d10 isn't enough, even if it does roll 1. If the d20 is pulled in, by turboing to 10 sides and rolling 10, followed by a 1 when Buddy takes, which I think is the best-case scenario, 20 sides falls short of a winning total.
Having the 12-sider wouldn't help, AFAICT. More chance of hitting a number that brings the shadow into play, but more sides in deficit once it's taken.
I think you're right about the current situation -- the clever hail mary of increasing the turbo to 10 sides and rolling a 10, followed by the s20 capturing as it must and rerolling a 1 [A] has only one chance in 200 of working and [B] is still show by two-thirds of a side. there's a *mathematically* possible ways to win, but it requires buddy's complicity, i.e. capture the 10-sided die and the X=4 die AND increase the turbo swing to 13 sides or more AND roll it 1-7 so the shadow can't take it. but for that to work, Buddy would have to NOT capture the turbo swing on his next turn which would not happen.
But I think if Buddy had taken the turbo-swing instead on the last turn, the option of taking the X-swing and rolling 10,11, or 12, followed by the shadow die rolling 1 WOULD win [the turbo would have only given 4 points to Buddy when captured] -- and it would have had a whopping 3 chances in 200 of working. Again, it would have required Buddys complicity in capturing the wrong die on the previous turn, but it's a mistake I very nearly made, so frightened am I of turbo swings in the endgame.
Post a Comment