I'll post my opinion and then check to see if I got it right :)
My guess is: There are two possibilities: Take with the poison die or with the swing die, resetting it to 10.
My argumentation: To win, he absolutely has to take the stealth die. This he can only do if he throws a 6, so he wants to maximize his chances for that. If he captures with the poison die, his chances are 1/10 for winning. Chances for throwing a six are maximal if blackshadowshade resets the swing die to 6. However, in this case, if he manages to capture the stealth die, ElihuRoot has 21 + 3 (for the poison die) - 4 (for the stealth die), so 20 in total. blackshadowshade on the other hand has 24 - 15 (for losing the d30) + 3 (for gaining the d6) - 1.5 (for the poison die) + 8 (for the stealth die), so 18.5 in total and loses anyway. If he resets it to 7, he has 19, if he resets it to 8: 19.5, if he resets it to 9: 20, if he resets it to 10: 20.5, finally pushing him over the edge. Here again, his chances are 1/10 of throwing a 6 and winning.
To maximize his chances of NOT LOSING this round, as opposed to winning, he should capture with the swing die and reset to 9.
I've checked this twice but I'm still not sure. The way you phrase it, I thought there would be just one solution.
You're in the right ballpark, but your reasoning about setting it to 9 is not correct -- remember if you are able to capture the stealth die, you'll get to reset the turbo swing a SECOND time. So your initial idea of reetting the turbo to 6 when taking the p(3) was exactly right, you're hoping to roll a 6 on that roll -- which is most likely if you set Z=6. Then, if that happens, you can (a) capture the d(8) and (b) then reset the turboon the last reroll of the game (might as well reset it to 30 , though in fact, you could win by resetting it to any value above 9. )
5 comments:
We'll see if people agree with what I actually did. :)
I've been enjoying several of my games in this Mad Robin Season, lots of interesting decisions. I think you did this exactly right.
I'll post my opinion and then check to see if I got it right :)
My guess is: There are two possibilities: Take with the poison die or with the swing die, resetting it to 10.
My argumentation: To win, he absolutely has to take the stealth die. This he can only do if he throws a 6, so he wants to maximize his chances for that. If he captures with the poison die, his chances are 1/10 for winning.
Chances for throwing a six are maximal if blackshadowshade resets the swing die to 6.
However, in this case, if he manages to capture the stealth die, ElihuRoot has 21 + 3 (for the poison die) - 4 (for the stealth die), so 20 in total. blackshadowshade on the other hand has 24 - 15 (for losing the d30) + 3 (for gaining the d6) - 1.5 (for the poison die) + 8 (for the stealth die), so 18.5 in total and loses anyway. If he resets it to 7, he has 19, if he resets it to 8: 19.5, if he resets it to 9: 20, if he resets it to 10: 20.5, finally pushing him over the edge. Here again, his chances are 1/10 of throwing a 6 and winning.
To maximize his chances of NOT LOSING this round, as opposed to winning, he should capture with the swing die and reset to 9.
I've checked this twice but I'm still not sure. The way you phrase it, I thought there would be just one solution.
You're in the right ballpark, but your reasoning about setting it to 9 is not correct -- remember if you are able to capture the stealth die, you'll get to reset the turbo swing a SECOND time. So your initial idea of reetting the turbo to 6 when taking the p(3) was exactly right, you're hoping to roll a 6 on that roll -- which is most likely if you set Z=6. Then, if that happens, you can (a) capture the d(8) and (b) then reset the turboon the last reroll of the game (might as well reset it to 30 , though in fact, you could win by resetting it to any value above 9. )
Oh yeah... Silly me. I forgot you can reset the swing die again.
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