Monday, January 19, 2015

Queen's Gambit

I'm almost certainly dead here. Do I have any chance at all? I think there are only two moves that
keep any mathematical chance of me winning alive.

Game #2400  •  ElihuRoot (Nimue) vs. eksortso (Guenever)  •  Round #3
Random Buttonlords (really) (with a reverse)
Your turn to attack


(4) (6) s(12) (20) (X)
Button: Nimue
Player: ElihuRoot
W/L/T: 1/1/0 (3)  •  Score: 23 (-18.3 sides)
Dice captured: (12)
(4)
4
(6)
5
s(12)
11
(X=12)
 10 
1
(6)
5
s(8)
9
(10)
5
(X=13)
Dice captured: (20), (X=12)
W/L/T: 1/1/0 (3)  •  Score: 50.5 (+18.3 sides)
Player: eksortso
Button: Guenever
(6) s(8) (10) (12) (X)

2 comments:

Unknown said...

You currently have five attacks to choose from:
1) A skill attack on the [(10):9]
2) Capture the [(6):1] with your (4)
3-5) Use your (6) to take any of three dice.

In case 1), you could win if both dice reroll to 2 or 3.

In case 2), you could mathematically win, but only if you opponent uses their (X=13), rerolls to 11 or 12, and makes some equally questionable attacks later.

In cases 3 and 4), again your opponent would need to use their (X=13) and reroll high, and then purposely not take your s(12).

In case 5), you could win if you reroll 2, 3, or 4.

So strictly speaking you're never mathematically certain of losing, and even if your opponent is competent you can still win with either attack 1) or 5).

-Jimmosk

Ted said...

I do think I spoke too soon, but I did mean to imply that if my opponent plays optimally, he or she can prevent my winning -- so any attack which doesn't reroll my d6 can't possibly win -- (s)he can capture it with the s8 on the reply, then take the d4 the next turn with the d10.

But I do think the other four attacks may all have very slim chances of success -- some of them are pretty outlandish, though.