Pretty basic situation toward the end of a round -- I should be able to win this, but what attack minimizes the probability of something going wrong?
Random buttons!
Your turn to attack
q(20) q(20) (8/12) (6/12) (4)
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W/L/T: 2/2/0 (3) • Score: 52 (+10 sides)
Dice captured: (30), (6/10=6)
Dice captured: q(20), (6/12=6)
W/L/T: 2/2/0 (3) • Score: 37 (-10 sides)
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F(4/8) (6) (6/10) s(8) (30)
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4 comments:
My gut instinct would be to use the 8-sided option die to capture the fire die. That makes the q(20) and the (4) safe, and if the 8-sider rolls a 3 or 4, it is also safe.
I figure that the aim here is to keep the q(20) safe no matter what, since that is enough to ensure that you win the round.
Take the F8 with the 8/12? Makes the 4 safe and ensures you only have to use the q20 once, to take the shadow die.
OK, though note that if your 8-sided option die rolls a 1 or 2, i. could capture it with his d6, and if it rolls a 5 or a 6 [this would happen with probability 1/12] you'd be forced to reroll the q20 with some chance of losing. Also if the 8-sided option die rolls to 7 after its attack, i. could do a skill attack with a 1/6 chance of rolling high enough on both the s8 and d6 to force you to retoll the q20 (total probability of this occurrence is 1/48] -- so with probability 1/12 + 1/48 = 5/48, you'd have to reroll the q20 into danger.
On the other hand, if you take the s8 with your 8-sided option die, while it could also roll a 1,2, or 7 with similar outcomes, you'd be facing MUCH less danger on if you had to reroll the q20 as a lone fire die can't make power or shadow attacks. On the other hand, even if the 8-sided option die rolled 3,4,5 or 6, i. might be able to force a reroll by making a power attack assisted by the fire die -- still, the danger after a successful such attack would only be 1 chance in 20, as opposed to 5 or more out of 20 in the first case.
That's very interesting --- certainly, the nuances were obviously lost on first impressions.
After looking at the problem again, I tried to work out the actual probabilities for the case where the shadow die is captured first, but I got lost in my cursory attempt, because of the complication that the Fire die changes value upon firing.
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