Tuesday, December 27, 2011

no question here, just a simple position.

At first, I thought rerolling the d10(v9) was a certain losing position, but if it rolls an 8 there's a slight chance of winning. Still, rolling the d12(v2) is at least a little better, isn't it? Rolling either an 8 or a  12 gives some hope [not much in either case, but both are better than the d10 rolling an 8]

Viewing Game #725674 
Tournament Legal challenge, copying communication from game 725034
This game was last modified on Tue Dec 27, 2011 17:08:04

* Next Turn * Player: lephantman13 *Perfect Memory* * Next Turn *
Button Man: Ron Graham    Score: 34 (-8.6 sides)   Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 1 / 0 (out of 3 round(s))
Captured Dice: Option 10/20 20-sided die
DiceKonstant
6-sided die
10-sided die12-sided die 
Value492 
 
Dice10-sided dieOption 4/10
(with 10 sides)
Option 6/10
(with 10 sides)
Option 10/12
(with 12 sides)
Value54112
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic* 
Button Man: Cesare    Score: 47 (8.6 sides)   Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 0 / 0
Captured Dice: 20-sided die, V Mood Swing 6-sided die

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

twin die d(6,6) vs. vanilla d12 -- which to reroll?

haven't done the math yet -- and it's probably pretty close -- but the tension to me is hat
the twin die rolls a little higher on average, but also is less likely to roll a "12".

Button Men Game #723466 
Tournament Legal challenge, copying communication from game 722199

Skills in this game: TwinReserveX Swing
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Krosp (4 (6,6) 12 12 X)   Score: 42 (14.6 sides)   Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 0 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: Twin Die (both with 10 sides), 4-sided die
Twin Die
(both with 6 sides)
12-sided die12-sided dieX Swing
(with 7 sides)
  9  5  103
Captured last turn
6-sided die12-sided die
  6  11
Opponent: theAlmighty *heavenly* *Silver Medal in Men's Basketball* *Silver Medal in Men's Fencing* *Silver Medal in Men's Judo* *Gold Medal in Men's Table Tennis*
Button Man: Cammy Neko (4 6 12 (10,10) r12 r20 r20 r(8,8))   Score: 20 (-14.6 sides)   Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 0 / 0
Captured Dice: 4-sided die, X Swing 7-sided die

what's better? Capturing the bigger die or rerolling the bigger vulnerable die?

Button Men Game #725034 

Skills in this game: OptionFocusV Swing
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Oni (4 10 f12 f12 V)   Score: 31 (-3.3 sides)   Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 1 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: 12-sided die, Option 6/12 6-sided die
4-sided die10-sided dieFocus
12-sided die
 Focus
12-sided die
  2  5  1 9
Captured last turn
10-sided die12-sided dieOption 4/12
(with 4 sides)
  
  7  6  1  
Opponent: lephantman13 *Perfect Memory*
Button Man: Mischa (10 12 12 4/12 6/12)   Score: 36 (3.3 sides)   Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 1 / 0
Captured Dice: V Swing 11-sided die, Focus 12-sided die

Monday, December 5, 2011

Iago and Bill and Diro and Chang [not a problem, just an observation because of a recent game involving Chang]

These are not completely equivalent, but
(A) after 1200-1900 games, why should Iago have a 4% better record than Dirgo? Is it their respective button groups? [should look at the breakdown of their games by opposing button, and somehow renormalize]
With a  probability of winning of about 40,  the standard deviation after 1200 games would be  about 0.7 %
of course that assumes the games are independent, and all are 40%, etc. -- still 4% is nearly 6 standard deviations...

(B) Chang seems *way* too low, doesn't it? the option dice aren't as simple as an X-swing but
you have so many more options here, including NO twenty-sided dice, or having one 2 sided die
[you could have  20 20 20 4, 20 20 20 8, or 20 20 20 20  which captures much of the power of the 20 20 20 X recipes -- but you ALSO have 20 20 20 2, and 2 8 20 20, and all sort of other variants that could be very useful.] I do suspect that Chang is easier  to misplay, but, with perfect play has the potential to do about as well and maybe even a bit better than Dirgo/Iago.



103Chang (TL)2/20 2/20 4/20 8/20Fantasy12702314358435.43%
93Bill (TL)20 20 20 (V,V)Dork Victory16392069370844.2%
51Iago (TL)20 20 20 XSoldiers19352541447643.23%
158Dirgo (TL)20 20 20 XMajesty12101875308539.22%