best capture?

I could take his biggest die, showing his largest value -- but there are at least two potentially valid reasons to take something smaller. Are they persuasive?

Tournament #13561: Friday Soldieralikes Current Round: Round 1. (organized by irilyth)

They look like Soldiers... But they're not.

Skills in this game: X Swing

Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: RandomBM (8 10 12 12 X) Score: 17.5 (-9.6 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 0 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: None

8-sided die	10-sided die	12-sided die	X Swing (with 5 sides)		12-sided die
5	2	4	2		9 Captured last turn
4-sided die	4-sided die	8-sided die	10-sided die	X Swing (with 14 sides)
4	4	6	7	7

Opponent: Limax *Wombat* *Is a MAN* *Fanatic*
Button Man: RandomBM (4 4 8 10 X) Score: 32 (9.6 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 2 / 0
Captured Dice: 12-sided die

Interesting matchup -- what should the swing die be?

OK, I am currently in the middle of a Socrates vs. Morgan game. Both buttons have only four dice, with some compensation in their skills. Both buttons have low winning percentages overall, though I think this is partly from misplay in each case (especially Socrates), though certainly neither one is very strong.

But my question at the moment is about the Y swing for Socrates. What do you think it should be set to in this case? Usually, a "1" makes a lot of sense for Socrates -- the presence of his special attack gives a lot more flexibility and the benefit in gaining initiative is very strong, especially when you only have four dice. On the other hand, against a button with speed dice -- especially MULTIPLE speed dice, a "1" can be a ticket to disaster, making losses of multiple dice -- which Socrates in particual can ill afford -- much more likely. My GENERAL recommendation
when going against buttons with (multiple) speed dice is to make your swing dice as LARGE as possible; but the desire for a nice victory condition may keep you from simply maxing out the swing. In this context, the need for initiative is yet another constraint.

So: the questions:

• If Morgan's X=4, what do you think Socrates's Y should be set to?
• If Morgan's X=20, what do you think Socrates's Y should be set to?
• What should Socrates's Y be set to for the opening round?

All answers are welcome -- I don't necessarily have a best answer myself -- but I'm more interested in your reasoning than your answer.


Socrates (from Fantasy set)

• 4-sided die [ 4 ]
• 10-sided die [ 10 ]
• 12-sided die [ 12 ]
• Y Swing [ Y ]

[Special Rules: Socrates may use one of his opponent's dice as part of any 2-die Skill Attack. (called a Socrates Attack)] Wins: 1814 Losses: 2940 Win Ratio = 38% Total Games: 4754
(Stats do not count Socrates vs Socrates games.)

Morgan (from Brawl set)

• Speed 10-sided die [ z10 ]
• Speed 12-sided die [ z12 ]
• Speed 12-sided die [ z12 ]
• Speed X Swing [ zX ]

Wins: 2404 Losses: 4798 Win Ratio = 33% Total Games: 7202
(Stats do not count Morgan vs Morgan games.)

Two options -- is it clear which one's best?

SpacemanSpiff can either take my 4-sided die or my morphing-12-sided die. It's clear, isn't it, that the best die to take the 4-sided die is his die with value 3, and the best die to take the morphing-12-sided die is his die with value 5. Most people -- myself included -- would probably instinctively do the latter and maybe that is the best move; but there's a case for taking the 4-sided die, too. Is it persuasive?

Tournament #12831: "Beating the stats" tournament for Jl8e Current Round: Round 6. (organized by glassonion)

Top 10 buttons ranked 40-60% overall using which jl8e has played 10 or more games. Please pick randomly.

This game was last modified on Thu Nov 13, 2008 08:24:16

Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic* 
Button Man: Talus    Score: 60 (16.6 sides)   Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 0 / 0 (out of 3 round(s))
Captured Dice: Turbo Option 20/30 20-sided die, Option 12/20 12-sided die

Dice	4-sided die	Morphing 12-sided die	20-sided die	X Swing (with 20 sides)
Value	2	4	15	12
Dice	10-sided die	10-sided die	10-sided die
Value	3	5	8

* Next Turn * Player: SpacemanSpiff *One Mean Cat* *Bronze Medal in Men's Long Jump* * Next Turn *
Button Man: Anger    Score: 35 (-16.6 sides)   Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 2 / 0
Captured Dice: 20-sided die

similar risk-aversion theme?

OK, I have to attack with the Doppleganger 12-sided die; But lots of issues are in tension with each other --

• likelihood of the D-12 -- or rather, whatever it becomes after the capture -- rolling high enough to survive one more turn.
• if I don't roll high, what die will he be using on the reroll, and how likely is it to roll a 2?
• how many points will I lose when/if he captured whatever my doppleganger has become?
  

What are my odds of winning? of drawing? Is there a way out?

Button Men Game #656327
Reverse Battle From Game 653873

Skills in this game: Twin, Doppleganger, W Swing, X Swing
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Envy (D4 D6 D10 D12 DX) Score: 43 (9.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 1 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: 20-sided die, 12-sided die

Doppleganger 4-sided die	Doppleganger 6-sided die	Doppleganger 12-sided die		Doppleganger X Swing (with 4 sides)
1	1	12		4 Captured last turn
Twin Die (both with 6 sides)	10-sided die	Twin W Swing (with 4 and 4 sides)
4	9	7

Opponent: devious *toaster oven* *Gold Medal in Women's Bars* *Bronze Medal in Women's Fencing* *Gold Medal in Women's Marathon* *Bronze Medal in Women's Synchronized Swimming* *Gold Medal in Women's Weightlifing*
Button Man: Buck Godot ((6,6) 10 12 20 (W,W)) Score: 29 (-9.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 2 / 0
Captured Dice: Doppleganger 10-sided die, Doppleganger X Swing 4-sided die

A test of intuition -- or of risk-aversion

This is not a DEEP position -- a few moment's calculation will figure out the best move. But what's your instinctive move here? To WIN you must attack with the poison, be captured AND capture the remaining die on the next turn. But which die to take first?

Actually, it's more subtle than that -- one choice may have a lower chance of a WIN, but at least guarantees the draw, while the other includes a possible loss. Many people might shun any possibility of a loss (especially as I've already lost 2 rounds!) -- but is that really sensible?
What's the win-loss probability for the next game?

I don't have a perfect answer for this -- if I could do THAT computation, this blog would look very different. I could use the Strik-Unicorn data on the web site, if I trusted it -- what size swing die did THOSE people use? Or, given that I'm struggling in this match, use the 1-2 data I have here and estimate my chances at 33% if we tie this round. Or, maybe I should factor in game #637706, earlier in the match, where I beat Unicorn 3-0 -- so my chances go up to 67% in another game!



Button Men Game #654469

Tournament #12842: "Beating the stats" tournament for Gman97216 (organized by glassonion)

Top 10 buttons ranked 40-60% overall using which gman97216 has played 16 or more games. Please pick randomly.

Skills in this game: Focus, Poison, Shadow, X Swing
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Strik (8 p10 s16 16 X) Score: 20 (-24 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 2 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: Focus 12-sided die, 4-sided die, Focus 6-sided die

Poison 10-sided die	16-sided die
9	15
4-sided die	20-sided die
4	7

Opponent: Toppler *Lord of 11's*
Button Man: Unicorn (4 4 f6 f12 20) Score: 56 (24 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 1 / 0
Captured Dice: Shadow 16-sided die, X Swing 20-sided die, 8-sided die