I have two options here [as far as I can see, at least]: If I eat the poision, I must also capture the (10) to have a chance of winning. But if I take the (4) and manage to avoid eating the poison, I can win. I think it's clear that if I take the (4), I should do so with the (6). But is that the best move?
If I eat the poison first, I have about a 70% chance of forcing the (10) to reroll. But that doesn't gurantee success, especially if I end the round with my p(12) uneaten.
I know what I decided to do, but I didn't work out the details carefully. What do you think?
