what do you think? did llamapez make the right move?

I had meant to post the question before ll's move, but didn't have the opportunity to save the game position at that time. So now, it's a retrospective question -- maybe that's an interesting variant way to present the problem. What would have been the best thing for ll. to do?

Button Men Game #628072
This game is 'for fun' and does not count for player rankings.
Arena Game: Generate a Random Button Man: CRAZY (4 Dice, Swing, Five skils on 1 or more Dice)

Skills in this game: Turbo, Twin, Option, Chance, Doppleganger, Fire, Focus, Weak, Morphing, Ornery, Poison, Queer, Shadow, W Swing, X Swing

Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: RandomBM (oh8 q8 (10,10) ospfX! s19) Score: 47 (-9.6 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 0 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: Option Morphing Chance Fire 20/30 30-sided die, Twin Die (both with 12 sides), Doppleganger W Swing 7-sided die

Weak Ornery 2-sided die	Ornery Focus Poison Shadow X Turbo Swing (with 15 sides)		Queer 8-sided die
2	1		6 Captured last turn
Twin Die (both with 2 sides)	Doppleganger 6-sided die	Shadow 19-sided die
3	3	15

Opponent: llamapez
Button Man: RandomBM ((2,2) D6 cFm20/30 (12,12) DW s19) Score: 61.5 (9.6 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 2 / 0
Captured Dice: Twin Die (both with 10 sides), Shadow 19-sided die, Queer 8-sided die

llamapez's Response

So I says to myself... I says, all I have to do is *not* roll an 8. I rolled an 8.

Select an attack: Power Attack Shadow Attack Skill Attack

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Player Communication
llamapez Mon Feb 25, 2008 14:50:44	So I says to myself... I says, all I have to do is *not* roll an 8. I rolled an 8.

Game Communication is viewable by: Game Players only Everyone (Opponent must also choose this option)

Results from last turn

llamapez is performing a skill attack with a Twin Die (both with 2 sides) showing 4 and a Doppleganger 6-sided die showing 2, targeting ElihuRoot's Queer 8-sided die showing 6. The Twin Die (both with 2 sides) is rerolled and the new value is 3. The Doppleganger 6-sided die is rerolled and the new value is 3. llamapez takes ElihuRoot's die.

what do you think I should do?

on the one hand, I need to capture BOTH A's 10 and 12 sided dice to win;
on the other hand, rerolling the 13-sided die right now seems like a bad idea.

Button Men Game #628960

Tournament #12772: Six letter names Current Round: Round 1. (organized by Anders)

Choose as you wish.

Skills in this game: Reserve, X Swing
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Brigid (8 8 X X X) Score: 50.5 (2.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 0 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: 20-sided die, 20-sided die

8-sided die	X Swing (with 13 sides)		8-sided die
4	13		7 Captured last turn
4-sided die	10-sided die	12-sided die
1	10	7

Opponent: Anders *ONE MILLION POINTS* *Fanatic*
Button Man: Tenchi (4 10 12 20 r4 r12 20 r20) Score: 47 (-2.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 1 / 0
Captured Dice: X Swing 13-sided die, X Swing 13-sided die, 8-sided die

fighting speed dice

Kuni is in a dangerous position here, to be sure -- even the best move doesn't have much chance of winning. But that said, are some moves much more dangerous than others?


Viewing Game #628886

Tournament #12805: "Beating the stats" tournament for Glassonion Current Round: Round 1. (organized by glassonion)

See the Special Tournaments board for an explanation, if you need one. Glassonion's top ten buttons with overall win percentages of 40-60%. Please choose randomly.

This game was last modified on Mon Feb 25, 2008 14:40:30

* Next Turn * Player: Kuni *imzadi* *Ring of Air* *The Collector* * Next Turn *
Button Man: Social Class Score: 13 (-16 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 1 / 0 (out of 3 round(s))
Captured Dice: None

Dice	Option 6/8 (with 6 sides)	Option 8/10 (with 8 sides)	Option 12/20 (with 12 sides)
Value	5	8	1
Dice	Trip 1-sided die	10-sided die	10-sided die	Speed 12-sided die	Y Swing (with 13 sides)
Value	1	1	1	10	5

Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Button Man: slamkrypare Score: 37 (16 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 0 / 0
Captured Dice: Option 4/6 4-sided die, Option 10/12 10-sided die

Don't believe the statistics!

I never know how much credence to give the statistics compiled on buttonmen.com -- especially those created by the "adoptions" that encouraged players to generate data on every possible matchup -- but how good is that data?

Even beforehand, there are lots of buttons that I think are "better" than their statistics indicate -- I suppose there must also be buttons that are worse than their statistics, but those don't jump out at me.

It's most notable with buttons with atrocious records and unusual recipes -- Max, Tess, Socrates, maybe Synthia. I'm not going to say any of these are GOOD in some absolute sense (well, maybe Max is good, at least against many opponents) -- just that they are better than their stats.

I used to wonder if one possible source of misleadingly low statistics is that buttons play more often against others in the same set, and the runt of the litter on Krypton might still be Superman on earth. [am I using that analogy correctly? I don't really know the Superman mythos.] I don't actually have any examples of this, though!

I still think the real isue is that some buttons are just subtle to play --and if you suddenly get one of them in a randomly chosen matchup, you're not likely to make optimal decisions.

There were several examples listed with Max (also this) in this blog a few months ago; maybe the thing to do next is to pick other strange buttons -- especially buttons with misleadingly low statistics -- and try to see what's going on with them, maybe through examples. I'd be interested to hear if anyone else has can suggest particular buttons they think are better than their stats.

What do you think?

A. almost certainly needs to reroll his 20-sided die; but is it worth it for him to to go after my 12-sided die? or is the stinger more important?


Viewing Game #626870
Tournament Legal challenge, copying communication from game 626663
This game was last modified on Thu Feb 7, 2008 10:33:17

* Next Turn * Player: Anders *ONE MILLION POINTS* *Fanatic* * Next Turn *
Button Man: Scorpion Score: 22 (2.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 2 / 0 (out of 3 round(s))
Captured Dice: None

Dice	4-sided die	4-sided die	Focus 4-sided die	Focus 12-sided die	20-sided die
Value	3	2	1	4	5
Dice	4-sided die	Stinger 4-sided die	Stinger 6-sided die	12-sided die	X Swing (with 11 sides)
Value	3	1	5	11	8

Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Button Man: Cass Score: 18.5 (-2.3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 2 / 0
Captured Dice: None