Tuesday, February 11, 2014

If Crab were some other button, I wouldn't know what to reroll.

OK, everyone sees at a glance
  • I should capture the f10 with value of 6, that's clearly better than any other capture
  • I'll win if I survive with my d10, and tie if I survive with my d8 
That along probably would incline me to reroll the d8, even though it only has a 25% chance of rolling out of C.'s ability to recapture me (the d10 has a 40% chance of doing that). But what if the score were a bit different? If  Crab's d12 that has already been captured were instead another d10, C.'s score would be only 63 at this point int he game, and I could win by surviving with either my d8 or d10.  Would it then make more sense to capture the d10 with my d10? That 40% chance of rolling out of danger is compelling, is it sufficient? 


Game #82: Round #1
Your turn to attack

Button: Crab
(8) (10) (12) f(20) f(20)
Player: ElihuRoot
W/L/T: 0/0/0 (3)
Dice captured: (12), (20)
Score: 41

8
(8)
8
(10)
5
f(6)
2
(10)
6
f(10)

Score: 65
Dice captured: f(20), f(20), (12)
W/L/T: 0/0/0 (3)
Player: Caligari
f(6) (10) f(10) (12) (20)
Button: Mirumoto

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