A test of intuition -- or of risk-aversion

This is not a DEEP position -- a few moment's calculation will figure out the best move. But what's your instinctive move here? To WIN you must attack with the poison, be captured AND capture the remaining die on the next turn. But which die to take first?

Actually, it's more subtle than that -- one choice may have a lower chance of a WIN, but at least guarantees the draw, while the other includes a possible loss. Many people might shun any possibility of a loss (especially as I've already lost 2 rounds!) -- but is that really sensible?
What's the win-loss probability for the next game?

I don't have a perfect answer for this -- if I could do THAT computation, this blog would look very different. I could use the Strik-Unicorn data on the web site, if I trusted it -- what size swing die did THOSE people use? Or, given that I'm struggling in this match, use the 1-2 data I have here and estimate my chances at 33% if we tie this round. Or, maybe I should factor in game #637706, earlier in the match, where I beat Unicorn 3-0 -- so my chances go up to 67% in another game!



Button Men Game #654469

Tournament #12842: "Beating the stats" tournament for Gman97216 (organized by glassonion)

Top 10 buttons ranked 40-60% overall using which gman97216 has played 16 or more games. Please pick randomly.

Skills in this game: Focus, Poison, Shadow, X Swing
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Your Button Man: Strik (8 p10 s16 16 X) Score: 20 (-24 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 2 / 0 (Out of 3 wins)
Your Captured Dice: Focus 12-sided die, 4-sided die, Focus 6-sided die

Poison 10-sided die	16-sided die
9	15
4-sided die	20-sided die
4	7

Opponent: Toppler *Lord of 11's*
Button Man: Unicorn (4 4 f6 f12 20) Score: 56 (24 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 1 / 0
Captured Dice: Shadow 16-sided die, X Swing 20-sided die, 8-sided die