Monday, December 5, 2011

Iago and Bill and Diro and Chang [not a problem, just an observation because of a recent game involving Chang]

These are not completely equivalent, but
(A) after 1200-1900 games, why should Iago have a 4% better record than Dirgo? Is it their respective button groups? [should look at the breakdown of their games by opposing button, and somehow renormalize]
With a  probability of winning of about 40,  the standard deviation after 1200 games would be  about 0.7 %
of course that assumes the games are independent, and all are 40%, etc. -- still 4% is nearly 6 standard deviations...

(B) Chang seems *way* too low, doesn't it? the option dice aren't as simple as an X-swing but
you have so many more options here, including NO twenty-sided dice, or having one 2 sided die
[you could have  20 20 20 4, 20 20 20 8, or 20 20 20 20  which captures much of the power of the 20 20 20 X recipes -- but you ALSO have 20 20 20 2, and 2 8 20 20, and all sort of other variants that could be very useful.] I do suspect that Chang is easier  to misplay, but, with perfect play has the potential to do about as well and maybe even a bit better than Dirgo/Iago.



103Chang (TL)2/20 2/20 4/20 8/20Fantasy12702314358435.43%
93Bill (TL)20 20 20 (V,V)Dork Victory16392069370844.2%
51Iago (TL)20 20 20 XSoldiers19352541447643.23%
158Dirgo (TL)20 20 20 XMajesty12101875308539.22%

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