Can you see the justification for rerolling the d30 with value 30 in this situation? Is the
argument compelling? What if the mood swing were just a regular d12? or a d4?
Viewing Game #719620
Tournament Legal challenge, copying communication from game 716780
This game was last modified on Thu Jun 23, 2011 10:40:03
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Button Man: Vincent Score: 33 (-14.6 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 0 / 0 (out of 3 round(s))
Captured Dice: None
| Dice | 30-sided die | 30-sided die | Option 6/30 (with 6 sides) | ||
| Value | 8 | 30 | 5 | ||
| Dice | 4-sided die | Konstant 6-sided die | 8-sided die | Option 10/20 (with 20 sides) | X Mood Swing (with 12 sides) |
| Value | 1 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
Button Man: Fan Chung Graham Score: 55 (14.6 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 1 / 0
Captured Dice: 30-sided die
1 comment:
The argument for taking your 20-sider now is quite simple: if you take his 6-sider and either of his 30-siders, he can only win if your mood swing rerolls to have 16 or 20 sides. Since he can't guarantee you'll need to roll that die and the 6-sider is pretty much impossible to protect, his best move is to try to protect both 30-siders now. Taking your 8-sider with the die showing 8 gives him a 1/3 chance of rolling it too high for you to take. Taking your 20-sider with the other 30-sider, on the other hand, gives him a 4/5 chance of rolling to a safe number. Without crunching the numbers, his odds seem far better if he has both 30-siders than if he has a 30-sider and a 6-sider.
If the mood swing were a regular 12-sider, he will lose if he loses two of his remaining dice and win if he only loses one. If it were a 4-sider, he wins if he keeps both 30-siders, ties if he keeps a 30-sider and the 6-sider, and loses otherwise. Either way, the need to keep two dice to avoid losing and the relative difficulty of protecting the 6-sider would make the argument for taking the 20-sider now even stronger.
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