Friday, January 28, 2011

Not hard to do the math, but maybe counterintuitive

What should Limax do here? There's only one move that has any chance of winning. You can work it out carefully, or you can use your instinct -- but your instincts may betray you!

Correction -- there are two moves that have *some* chance of winning, but one is a small chance and the other is a VERY small chance.

Viewing Game #711912
Reverse Battle From Game 711736
This game was last modified on Fri Jan 28, 2011 10:33:16

Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Button Man: Nethershadow    Score: 45 (27.3 sides)   Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 1 / 0 (out of 3 round(s))
Captured Dice: 20-sided die, X Swing 4-sided die, 8-sided die
Dice6-sided die10-sided dieShadow
10-sided die
Value199
Dice8-sided diePoison
16-sided die
Value513
* Next Turn * Player: Limax *Wombat* *Is a MAN* *Fanatic* * Next Turn *
Button Man: Shepherd    Score: 4 (-27.3 sides)   Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 2 / 0
Captured Dice: Option 10/20 10-sided die, Option 6/30 6-sided die

3 comments:

James said...

OK, my instinct says to take the normal d10 with the p16.

- If the p16 rolls 9 or 10, Limax is guaranteed a win.
- If the p16 rolls 1, Limax has 5/6 chance of winning.
- If the p16 rolls anything else, then use the p16 to take the d6, leaving 2/16 chance of winning.

i.e. Probability of winning = 2/16 + 1/16*5/6 + 13/16*2/16 = 0.279.

Not too bad a chance. :)

Anonymous said...

I don't see how it's a guaranteed win if you roll a 9 or 10. You gained 10 sides, and then 16 more, but after that maybe your 8-sider has to take the 6-sider, and maybe then your 8-sider gets captured by the shadow die. If I'm counting correctly, you only end up gaining 24 sides that way but you need 28.

alwayslurking said...

Hmm, 8-sider gets captured by a shadow showing 9? Tell me more...