die after that to draw, assuming I don't manage to reroll my poison. He definitely wants to avoid rolling into a speed attack (how can he best do this?) -- but does he also need to consider the risk of rolling low, since I have a reasonable chance of capturing all three of his dice without losing any 10 sided die?
Viewing Game #682143
Tournament Legal challenge, copying communication from game 681973
This game was last modified on Wed Oct 28, 2009 08:01:52
* Next Turn * Player: Limax *Wombat* *Is a MAN* *Fanatic* * Next Turn *
Button Man: Von Pinn Score: 22.5 (3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 0 / 1 / 0 (out of 3 round(s))
Captured Dice: 12-sided die
| Dice | 4-sided die | 10-sided die | W Swing (with 7 sides) | |
| Value | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Dice | 8-sided die | 10-sided die | 10-sided die | Poison Shadow Speed V Turbo Swing (with 10 sides) |
| Value | 1 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Button Man: Werner Score: 18 (-3 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 0 / 0
Captured Dice: 20-sided die, Poison Twin Die (both with 6 sides)
3 comments:
The way I see it, the most telling attack would be the speed attack. To minimise the chance of this being effective, I'd reroll the d10.
ah, but note that the 4-sided die has a 25% chance of rolling into a speed attack, the 7 sided die has 2-chances in 7 (28.6%) of rolling into a speed attack, and the 10-sided die has THREE chances in 10 of rolling into a speed attack, including the attack where it's the only die taken -- you could call that a shadow attack if you prefer, but the point is it allows me to (A) take the 10 sided die, (B) lower my turbo poison by at least one point(C) keep my 10 sided dice safe for another turn. I'm guaranteed to capture the other two dice on the next two turns and will lose at most 10 more sides, thus, adding it all up [including the turn down of the turbo swing], I win for sure that 30% of the time. the times when you don't roll into a speed attack are a little murkier, as you are generally better off having rolled the 10 sided die in those cases.
If he doesn't roll into a speed attack, he's got a 40% chance of you rolling into an attack when you take the first die, and a 10-30% chance of you rolling into an attack on the next roll. Overall, this gives him a 46% chance if he rolls a 1, 52% if he rolls a 2, and 58% for any other safe number.
If he rolls the 4-sider, he has a 39% chance of at least tying. For the 7-sider, his chance is about 38.9%. If he rerolls the 10-sider, his chance is 38.8%.
So, while there's not much in it, his best move to avoid losing is to use the 4-sider here. His odds of actually winning the round might be slightly better if he rerolls one of the other dice, however, but I haven't actually done the calculations for that (far too many possible combinations to deal with at this hour).
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