irilyth has a choice; he can take my 4-sided die, or my 12-sided die. Which is better? If they both were showing the same value, it would be a no-brainer,but since the 4-sided die has a slightly higher value, there's some tradeoff here. is it enough? What if the 12-sided die had value 2, instead?
Viewing Game #662681
| Tournament #13769: Scorpion! Current Round: Round 1. (organized by alaric) |
Player: ElihuRoot *Dead Dude* *Fanatic*
Button Man: Scorpion Score: 28 (-8 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 1 / 2 / 0 (out of 3 round(s))
Captured Dice: Focus 12-sided die, Focus 4-sided die, 4-sided die
| Dice | 4-sided die | Focus 12-sided die |
| Value | 4 | 3 |
| Dice | 4-sided die | 20-sided die |
| Value | 1 | 20 |
Button Man: Scorpion Score: 40 (8 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 1 / 0
Captured Dice: 20-sided die, Focus 4-sided die, 4-sided die
Results from last turn:
ElihuRoot is performing a power attack with a Focus 12-sided die showing 4,
targeting irilyth's 4-sided die showing 4.
The Focus 12-sided die is rerolled and the new value is 3.
ElihuRoot takes irilyth's die.
2 comments:
My intution is definitely the 12-sider, and it doesn't matter what it's showing, because you're going to get to reroll it on your next turn anyway... So the only thing that matters is: When you reroll it, how likely is it to be higher than my rerolled 20-sider?
"More likely than 1/5" is my clear intuition.
(...and also, even if I roll a 1 - 4 on the 20-sider, I still have a 1/4 chance to win if you roll a 1 when you take it.)
My intuition arrived at the same answer as irilyth's in a different way.
There's a slightly higher chance that the 20-sider will roll low enough to be captured if the 12-sider is taken first.
If the 20-sider is taken, there's a much higher chance of the 4-sider rerolling a one than the 12-sider doing so.
So, in the worst case, the odds are better if the 4-sider is the die left.
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