Trip dice -- at least small trip dice -- have almost never seemed very useful. Is there ever a situation when you'd rather use a trip attack when another attack is possible?
Is this a time when a trip attack might better than the alternatives?
Play the AI! You will be assimilated and stuff.
This game was last modified on Tue Jan 6, 2009 09:05:55
* Next Turn * Player: bmai *AI* *111111101001000001100 as of 9-22-03* * Next Turn *
Button Man: Prudence Score: 17.5 (-7 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 2 / 0 (out of 3 round(s))
Captured Dice: 12-sided die
| Dice | 1-sided die | Trip 4-sided die | 6-sided die | |
| Value | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| Dice | 2-sided die | 2-sided die | 8-sided die | X Swing (with 4 sides) |
| Value | 2 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
Button Man: Patience Score: 28 (7 sides) Rounds Won/Lost/Tied: 2 / 2 / 0
Captured Dice: 12-sided die, X Swing 8-sided die
| Game Communication | |
| bmai Sun Jan 4, 2009 02:56:10 | I am 46.4% in 56 games against you. I am 66.1% in 59 games when playing Prudence. I am 39.1% in 46 games when playing against Patience. |
5 comments:
If I were to trip, I'd most likely want to trip th 8, since it's the only die that could attack my 6... my highest remaining die.
So, let's look at this... If the trip die rolls a 1, there's a 1 in 8 chance the trip will succeed. If it rolls a 2, there's a 1 in 4 chance. 3 would be 3 in 8 and 4 is 1 in 2. Probablility was never my strongest subject, so I don't know how to calculate the finalprobability of it succeeding. However, if the trip isn't done, It's probably a given that I would lose my largest die. Personally, I'd probably trip in this case.
The odds of that trip attack working are 10 in 32. There's also a 6 in 32 chance of knocking the 8-sider to 4 or less but not capturing it, and a 6 in 8 chance that it won't roll to a number that can't be captured if re-rolled in that case.
Since the AI needs to capture all of ElihuRoot's dice and keep either the 4-sider or the 6-sider to win, it really has to trip here, since it has no other way to get the 8-sider re-rolled.
I think the strongest argument for the trip attack is that BMAI needs to keep at least one of the trip 4-sided die and the 6 sided die to win; the only non-trip attacks that don't guarantee me a way to take one of those dice this turn without risking the 8-sided die [and so being able to take the other one next turn] are:
(A) if he takes my X-swing with his trip and rolls a 3
(B) if he takes my X-swing with the 6 and rolls a 6.
any other outcome of any possible non-trip attack he makes, and I can take one of his two bigger dice without risking my 8-sided die, and then take the other one next turn and I've won no matter what. And even if he makes it to one of those golden rerolls;
I still can take his die showing the largest value and still have a good chance of victory -- so his chances of success are less than 12.5%,l in fact less than 10%
Whereas, the trip attack has a better than 30% chance of success, and at that point he has better than a 1/2 * 2/3 chance of his 6-sided die surviving the remaining captures.
The obvious answer is that you'd rather trip than take poison, but that's rather trivial.
ok, though even that's not *always* true -- it depends on how big the poison is, and how many sides your opponent would need to have left uncaptured to win with or without the poison.
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