a poison puzzle from blackshadowshade

 

He encountered this situation in a recent game. I haven't thought about it at length, but I'm pretty sure I know which die I would use to make my attack; which die I would capture is a little less clear, but I have reasons for that, too. But I don't want to give spoilers and, anyway, I might be wrong.

 

only one post in all of 2024! I'll shoot for at least 2 in 2025

 though maybe this one shouldn't count, it's a pretty basic exercise, I just thought the specific numbers were interesting and surpisingly close.

I have to take the f(8), but I could do it with any of 3 dice. What are my chances of victory with each one?